It took some time to get right here, with the groups and the seeding within the wild-card bracket shifting round until the final day of the season. However when the mud settled, the Mariners and Cubs had been out, the Marlins were in, and the Rangers settled for a wild card.
Now that we lastly know the matchups within the postseason’s first spherical, how do they shake out? Right here’s our breakdown of this week’s wild-card video games, together with the gamers who could possibly be X-factors, the strengths and weaknesses that will probably be difference-makers and our predictions for every sequence.
No. 5 Texas Rangers at No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays
First recreation: 3:08 p.m. ET Tuesday
How they received right here:
Rangers: After a speedy and costly rebuild, the Rangers got here out of the gate sizzling this season and led the division in a lot of the early going, thanks largely to an offense that looked unstoppable. Then came a late-summer swoon that allowed the Astros and Mariners to catch all the way in which up within the standings. The Rangers then took again the lead within the AL West heading into the ultimate weekend … solely to lose three of 4 to the Mariners of their final sequence, surrender the division to the Astros on a tiebreaker and land within the AL’s second wild-card spot.
Rays: The Rays began 2023 as hot as any team in recent memory, leaping to an early lead within the AL East with a 13-0 begin. Accidents (significantly to the rotation), attrition and Wander Franco’s legal situation then took their toll. The Rays finally weren’t capable of catch the Orioles for the division title and as a substitute settled for the American League’s prime wild card.
X-factors:
Rangers: Following a 102-loss season in 2021, the Rangers spent half a billion {dollars} on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Now, by fWAR, they’re the highest two place gamers within the American League not named Shohei Ohtani. A few could-be-MVP candidates on the prime of the lineup is definitely a power, however they’re hardly a secret. That might as a substitute be Evan Carter, a 21-year-old who was totally untouted when Texas took him within the second spherical of the 2020 MLB Draft. He began this season in Double-A however was known as up Sept. 8 to interchange an injured Adolis García. When García received again, Carter caught round, and after lower than a month of major-league service, he has a 1.030 OPS, an opportunity to play within the postseason and doubtless some whiplash from how rapidly this all unfolded.
Rays: Know who has extra residence runs than Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker or Francisco Lindor? An unassuming, 24-year-old third baseman who’s among the many prime 20 gamers in residence runs this season, regardless of rating within the bottom-20th percentile for all of baseball in hard hit percent, average exit velocity and expected slugging.
Final 12 months, in his first season with the Rays, Isaac Parades was tied for the group lead with 20 residence runs after by no means hitting greater than 13 in a season courting to his minor-league debut. This 12 months, he leads the group once more — with 31. In brief, Parades manages to channel plate discipline into power, instead of just on-base percentage, by consistently pulling the ball in the air. Traditionally, the Rays have received by excelling on the margins, however this 12 months’s membership can bop. They’re fourth in runs scored, they usually have six guys with no less than 20 residence runs, led by Parades.
Distinction-makers:
Rangers: The Rangers have the doubtful distinction of being the primary group to ever make the postseason with extra blown saves (33) than saves (30). Put that on one aspect of the ledger and a lineup that scored probably the most runs within the AL on the opposite, and also you’ve received a reasonably good sense of the potential outcomes. Both the Rangers will rating a lot that even their bullpen can’t blow it or, effectively, the bullpen will in all probability blow it.
Rays: Tampa has a wonderful excuse for having fallen off a bit after beginning the season on an unstoppable tear. Particularly, all its pitchers’ arms have (mainly) fallen off. In the event that they had been wholesome, a rotation constructed partially out of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs would rank among the many prime causes the Rays might dominate in October. As a substitute, that trio’s absence is the largest trigger for concern. That mentioned, in a brief sequence, Tyler Glasnow because the No. 1 and an unimaginable capability to beat pitcher accidents as a corporation could possibly be the explanation the Rays prevail.
Prediction:
A terrific bullpen can take a group all the way in which to the World Sequence, and in October, managers aren’t afraid to make half a dozen pitching adjustments if it means getting the fitting matchup. Nonetheless, the Rangers’ Bruce Bochy will probably be hamstrung in that respect as a result of he simply doesn’t have sufficient dependable choices. The Rays take this one, in all probability in dramatic, comeback vogue. — Keyser
No. 6 Toronto Blue Jays at No. 3 Minnesota Twins
First recreation: 4:38 p.m. ET Tuesday
How they received right here:
Blue Jays: Toronto began the season with hopes of contending for a division title, however whereas the season didn’t entirely go off the rails, this group by no means actually gave the impression to be within the division image. With the Rays and Orioles making the AL East a two-horse race early on, the Blue Jays as a substitute reached the playoffs by way of the wild-card subject after jockeying for place with three groups from the AL West.
Twins: It was division-title-or-bust for the Twins, as somebody needed to win the moribund AL Central. The Twins led the division for many of the season on the power of a bolstered pitching rotation. On the offensive aspect, nevertheless, there’s a lot left to be desired, as Carlos Correa by no means discovered his stride, and Byron Buxton is injured but once more.
X-factors:
Blue Jays: Final offseason, Toronto dedicated to run prevention by buying Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho. Together with George Springer, in his third season with Toronto, they now boast among the best outfield defenses in baseball. It’s an oft-underappreciated facet of the sport, however it could possibly be particularly key in October, when runs are troublesome to come back by.
Twins: Baseball’s fourth-best pitcher by fWAR this 12 months is somebody whose identify hasn’t been a part of any Cy Younger conversations. At 33, Sonny Grey will hit the market this winter after his greatest season so far. However first, he’ll be Minnesota’s probably Recreation 2 starter within the postseason, behind Pablo Lopez. The complete Twins rotation has been one thing of a revelation this season. One 12 months after the group’s starters had the Twentieth-best ERA in baseball and the group missed the playoffs, Grey, Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober mixed to submit the third-best rotation ERA. Grey specifically has a superpower well-suited to October — when offenses are typically much more homer-dependent than the common season — as his eight residence runs surrendered this 12 months are the fewest in baseball by far.
Distinction-makers:
Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are speculated to bop. Throughout 2021 and 2022, they hit the third-most residence runs in baseball, and this 12 months, they’ve the Dwelling Run Derby champion. But all that amounted to a completely middling (sixteenth in MLB) residence run fee after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. used up all his dingers within the Derby (or one thing). The Blue Jays’ offense appears much less formidable than it has within the current previous, however that’s offset by the AL’s greatest beginning rotation by ERA. After all, provided that we mentioned kind of the identical factor concerning the Twins, the Jays’ lack of offense might show pivotal.
Twins: As mentioned, the Twins have a sneaky-great pitching employees, however we must always in all probability assume they’re cursed to by no means win a postseason recreation till confirmed in any other case.
Prediction:
Simply kidding — curses aren’t actual. The Twins take this one. After which breathe a enormous sigh of aid. — Keyser
No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks at No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers
First recreation: 7:08 p.m. ET Tuesday
How they received right here:
Diamondbacks: Arizona stunned many by contending forward of schedule this season. The D-backs truly led the NL West in a lot of the season’s first half earlier than a summer time hunch set them again of the Dodgers. Nonetheless, in a really crowded NL wild-card image, the Diamondbacks inched their manner up and forward of the fray to make the playoffs one 12 months after ending fourth within the division.
Brewers: The Brewers continued to do what they do best this season, with dominant pitching from the rotation and bullpen backed up by juuuust sufficient offense. The three-headed monster of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta led the way in which because the Brewers held off the Cubs and Reds to take the NL Central.
X-factors:
Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll. The presumptive NL Rookie of the Year is the engine of this Arizona group, and if the Diamondbacks are going to overpower the Brewers, it wants to begin with Carroll. He can change the sport together with his home-run thump or by wreaking havoc on the bases.
Brewers: William Contreras. The younger catcher the Brewers nabbed within the Sean Murphy deal has blossomed into a powerful defender to go together with his terrific bat. He has added treasured pop to a Milwaukee lineup that doesn’t pack fairly the identical punch because the pitching employees. Contreras is one in every of a number of younger contributors who might swing the Brewers’ fortunes with a powerful October.
Distinction-makers:
Diamondbacks: Arizona has limped to the end line and can enter as underdogs towards a dominant Brewers pitching employees. The principle pitfall could be failing to get on base sufficient to make use of their thrilling group velocity. Their greatest hope stems from Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Each pitchers are able to shutting down a Brewers offense that isn’t terrifying and permitting the younger lineup to scratch out some runs.
Brewers: Pitching, pitching, pitching. Milwaukee’s run prevention has been unmatched within the second half of the season. The rotation took a giant hit Monday, with the information that Brandon Woodruff is out for the wild-card round and presumably longer on account of a proper shoulder capsular damage. Nonetheless, begins from Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, mixed with a dynamite, Devin Williams-led bullpen, will give the Brewers motive to really feel good heading into most each recreation. A little bit offense ought to be a lot, however the chief fear for Craig Counsell’s membership revolves round whether or not a merely common group of bats will arise towards postseason pitching.
Prediction:
The Brewers’ arms show to be an excessive amount of, as Milwaukee holds down Arizona and advances. — Crizer
No. 5 Miami Marlins at No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies
First recreation: 8:08 p.m. ET Tuesday
How they received right here:
Marlins: Miami was by no means actually in rivalry for the NL East, however it one way or the other stayed in the midst of the NL pack earlier than surging into the wild-card combine and clinching the league’s No. 5 seed on the ultimate weekend of the season.
Phillies: With the NL East long since spoken for, the Phillies comfortably led the wild-card standings for a lot of the season. Buoyed as regular by a powerful forged of hitters, they’re following a well-recognized formulation of prolific home-run energy and simply sufficient pitching.
X-factors:
Marlins: Jorge Soler boasts a terrific .292/.418/.692 profession line in 26 profession postseason video games, together with his memorable World Sequence MVP efficiency with the Braves in 2021. The Marlins will want his energy to gas a Cinderella run.
Phillies: Actually, you would draw a reputation out of a hat within the Phillies’ bullpen, however the unheralded Jeff Hoffman has put collectively among the best, most constant seasons among the many relievers. Coming off a stretch run by which 16 of his last 17 outings had been scoreless, Hoffman is perhaps entrusted with high-leverage work alongside Craig Kimbrel and Jose Alvarado. In a bullpen that may even embrace nasty new call-up Orion Kerkering and regular-season starter Michael Lorenzen, urgent the fitting buttons will probably be essential.
Distinction-makers:
Marlins: Properly, doubting the Marlins hasn’t confirmed sensible but this season, regardless of numerous underlying metrics and a few key accidents. GM Kim Ng’s trade-deadline additions, Jake Burger and Josh Bell, have confirmed to be enormous boons for the Miami lineup behind batting-average wizard Luis Arraez. If supervisor Skip Schumaker retains squeezing clutch performances out of younger starters and particularly a bullpen led by Tanner Scott, the Marlins will probably be a risk. However their beginning rotation has taken hits of the damage selection (Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez are out) and the inconvenience selection (Braxton Garrett’s standing for the wild-card sequence goes to be suboptimal because of a rainout in New York).
Phillies: Waves upon waves of offensive expertise give the Phillies an apparent case to win. A rejuvenated Trea Turner provides a brand new dimension to the Bryce Harper-Kyle Schwarber combo atop the order, and the Phillies actually by no means let up. Bryson Stott has leveled up as a second-year participant, and a sequence of revered veterans akin to J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos populate even the decrease third of this lineup. That mentioned, the bullpen has been … unsettled, and whereas there are numerous good choices for supervisor Rob Thomson, nobody ought to envy his process of attempting to decipher the cold and hot streaks his relievers have endured this season.
Prediction:
The Phillies and their stars take the sequence from a punchy Marlins group. — Crizer
