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Inside our Oscar nomination predictions, plus who might be a shock

Inside our Oscar nomination predictions, plus who might be a shock

EW awards correspondent Dave Karger breaks down his Oscar nomination predictions. Plus, he chats with ‘Dwelling’ star Invoice Nighy and ‘Good Luck to You, Leo Grande’ star Emma Thompson.

Will the 2023 Oscar nominations shock followers, pundits, and Hollywood once they’re introduced Tuesday morning? EW award correspondent Dave Karger thinks we could get one or two.

Living proof: Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. “She’s British [but] she performs this Texas girl to perfection. It is a tiny movie with no promoting or advertising and marketing price range that premiered at South by Southwest, bought launched in October to not a lot fanfare, there’s been no [FYC] advertisements,” Karger explains of the film on the newest episode of The Awardist podcast. “However within the final couple of weeks there’s been this grassroots, social media, largely, and occasions marketing campaign run by all of those A-listers from Kate Winslet and Amy Adams and Edward Norton and Sarah Paulson and Jane Fonda, all of those individuals who have been Instagramming and tweeting about this efficiency and saying, ‘When you’re a member of the actors department of the Academy, that you must see this efficiency.’ It is in contrast to something I’ve ever seen earlier than.”

Whether or not it’ll repay will come all the way down to a numbers sport. “When you get 200 no. 1 votes from the actors department, you mainly robotically develop into a nominee — that is sort of the way it works with the maths. I may perhaps see that occuring simply from what I have been seeing on social media,” Karger says. “So along with the positive issues — Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, and I’d sort of add Viola Davis to that checklist — if there’s three ladies combating for the final three slots… I may see extra individuals placing Michelle Williams on their ballots, however I may see Andrea Riseborough getting extra no. 1 votes than Michelle Williams, and that would make the distinction…. I am dying to see what occurs.”

And Karger says do not rely out an enormous identify within the lead actor race.

“I simply am questioning if there’s going to be this Top Gun surge that would assist Tom Cruise,” he says of his no. 5 decide within the class the place Aftersun star Paul Mescal may lose out in flip.

Make sure to try Dave Karger’s predictions within the high six classes here, and EW sr. author Joey Nolfi’s checklist here.

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Test EW’s The Awardistthat includes unique interviews, evaluation, and our podcast diving into all of the highlights from the 12 months’s finest in films.

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