Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov prediction, choose: Who will get welterweight title shot at UFC 310?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. In the present day, he takes a better take a look at the UFC 310 fundamental occasion between Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Ian Machado Garry UFC 310 preview

Staple data:

• File: 15-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC
• Top: 6’3″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs. Attain: 74.5″
• Final struggle: Decision win over Michael Paige (June 29, 2024)
• Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
• Stance/putting fashion: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Good

Supplemental data:
+ Cage Warriors welterweight title
+ Judo black belt
+ Beginner/youth boxing exp.
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Constant tempo and stress
+ Strong sense of vary and distance
+ Correct shot choice
^ Good straight punches and kicks
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling skill
^ Favors makes an attempt from the clinch
+ Improved transitional grappler
^ Works effectively from topside

Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC 310 preview

Staple data:

• File: 18-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC
• Top: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Attain: 77″
• Final struggle: Submission win over Steven Thompson (Dec. 16, 2023)
• Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida/Kazakstan)
• Stance/putting fashion: Orthodox/Kickboxng
• Threat administration: Honest

Supplemental data:
+ M-1 welterweight title
+ Beginner MMAaccolades
+ Grasp of sports activities in fight sambo and MMA
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Aggressive tempo and stress
+ Strong proprioception and accuracy
^ Counters to spinning assaults
+ Excellent clinch putting
^ Slicing elbows and brutal physique knees
+ Solidwrestling skill
+ Misleading/opportunistic chokes
+ Harmful ground-and-pound

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov focal point: Undefeated threats

The co-main occasion for UFC 310 encompasses a welterweight contenders struggle between two undefeated abilities.

Regardless of coming from a grappling base, Ian Garry has dabbled with the putting arts from a younger age.

An achieved youth boxer, Garry possesses strong straight punches down the middle line from each stances. Though Garry primarily operates out of orthodox, he often switches sides for open-stance alternatives.

When feeling in stride, Garry will connect kicks to his punches, punishing all three ranges.

Garry might take the again foot a bit an excessive amount of for my liking, however his consolation with distance and range-finding permits him to construct progress as soon as he can set up his lead hand. And if an opponent over-commits from their energy aspect, Garry seems to have some pure pull counters in his repertoire.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1656810250341879809

That mentioned, counter putting seems to be a potent two-way road in Garry’s fights, so the Brazilian-Irishman will have to be aware of what’s coming again at him when standing throughout from Shavkat Rakhmonov.

An imposing Kazak fighter who has taken the welterweight division by storm, Rakhmonov is an offensive marauder who carries some misleading craft to his recreation.

A grasp of sports activities in fight sambo, Rakhmonov totally understands that offense and aggression are what in the end win fights in MMA. However what actually fuels Rakhmonov’s success is his preternatural proprioception and opportunistic sensibilities that always enable him to circulate into offensive alternatives.

Whether or not Rakhmonov is coming excessive of an opponent’s jab or catching them with a spin kick as they try and circle out, the 30-year-old phenom seldom appears brief on concepts given his hardwiring for violence in all phases.

Rakhmonov’s head motion and generally lackadaisical protection depart some room to be desired, however he does effectively at quietly rolling with photographs and hitting defensive pivots that enable him to return fireplace. And as soon as Rakhmonov can work into clinch house, “Nomad” makes use of artful wrist controls along side overhooks so as to land slicing elbows and brutal physique knees.

Shavkat movie room on the channel pic.twitter.com/X78PqJxFC6

— Jack Slack (@JackSlackMMA) December 5, 2024

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Contemplating the place the largest on-paper disparity lies, nobody must be shocked if Rakhmonov appears to grapple Garry this Saturday.

Rakhmonov isn’t essentially a lights-out wrestler, however he does have some strong methods from the clinch that he frequently goes to.

A tall and lanky fighter, Rakhmonov can lock his arms off deceptively robust over-under tie-ups as he appears to step round his opposition to finish a takedown. And if he can’t join his arms, then Rakhmonov is just not afraid to drop down for single-leg variations to maneuver some surprisingly impact knee-tap finishes to his takedowns.

Fortunately for Garry, he comes from a base in judo.

Now, Garry might not be placing up Karo Parisyan-like throws within the octagon, however the judo black belt does effectively at protecting a powerful base and stymying opposition in closed quarters.

Garry will make the most of extra conventional takedown assaults regardless of his background, however the 27-year-old appears to desire makes an attempt from the clinch – which might be attention-grabbing contemplating Rakhmonov’s acumen in mentioned house.

Apart from his aforementioned offense within the earlier part, Rakhmonov can be an extremely artful choke artist who can create extra suffocation factors than David Carradine can in a Thai resort room.

From arm-in guillotines to makeshift rear-naked chokes with no hooks hooked up, Rakhmonov wants solely a small window to shut the present. And if he results in high place, Rakhmonov is just not afraid to rain hell from above within the type of standing floor and pound, which is an underutilized strategy (significantly for long-armed fighters).

In Garry’s protection, he has made concerted efforts to enhance his grappling since transferring store to Brazil. Coaching with everybody from Charles Oliveira to Demian Maia, Garry gave the impression to be approaching his floor recreation with renewed vigor in his final outing, so I counsel leaving some room to be shocked.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov odds

The oddsmakers and the general public presently favor the Kazak fighter, itemizing Rakhmonov -400 and Garry +300 through FanDuel.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov prediction

Between the hype of Rakhmonov and the truth that Garry is the one who’s technically preventing on brief discover, I’m not shocked to see such a large betting unfold in Rakhmonov’s favor. Nonetheless, I warn anybody investing an excessive amount of into narratives and utterly writing off Garry’s abilities.

I gained’t die too arduous on any hills so far as Garry’s ceiling goes, however he does have some strong abilities that would pose Rakhmonov points at vary.

From the next output to a extra constant jab, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Garry pester Rakhmonov early and sometimes on this contest. And if Garry can survive some scares and drag this struggle late, then he has an actual probability to check Rakhmonov’s endurance (as we’ve but to see Rakhmonov in championship rounds).

That mentioned, output can include a excessive price – often within the type of unforgiving counters.

As I identified earlier than his fights with Michael Paige and Geoff Neal, Garry appears to battle with fighters who can competently counter. Not solely is Rakhmonov a fighter who can capitalize on openings like second nature, however his kill zone of the clinch additionally simply so occurs to be Garry’s most well-liked place of consolation.

Add in Garry’s propensity skirt alongside the skin of the cage, and it’s arduous to not see Rakhmonov ultimately forcing his win circumstances. The choose is Rakhmonov by submission in Spherical 2.

Prediction: Rakhmonov inside the gap

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov begin time, the place to observe

Because the co-main occasion, Garry and Rakhmonov are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 11:45 p.m. ET. The struggle airs on pay-per-view (through ESPN+).

For extra on the cardboard, go to MMA Junkie’s occasion hub for UFC 310.