WASHINGTON —
Israel’s battle towards Hezbollah and Hamas, whereas inflicting appreciable harm, has but to strike a crippling blow to both of the Iran-backed terror teams, in accordance with a high U.S. counterterrorism official.
The performing director of the U.S. Nationwide Counterterrorism Heart (NCTC) mentioned Tuesday that the affect of Israeli intelligence operations, together with repeated army airstrikes and floor offensives in Lebanon and Gaza, have severely diminished the flexibility of each teams to launch new assaults on Israel.
However he cautioned that each teams stay resilient, and within the case of Hezbollah, retain important capabilities.
“Earlier than the battle, they [Hezbollah] had constructed up unprecedented numbers of rockets and missiles and different munitions,” the NCTC’s Brett Holmgren advised an viewers in Washington, including that the Lebanese group was beginning at a “very sturdy level.”
And he mentioned whereas Israeli strikes have decimated Hezbollah management, the group’s floor forces in southern Lebanon “stay considerably intact.”
Moreover, Israel’s actions have accomplished little to break Hezbollah’s attain past the Center East.
“Their exterior capabilities have largely been untouched,” Holmgren mentioned, noting the U.S. and its allies are on alert for any indication Hezbollah might search to retaliate exterior the area.
Hamas’ endurance
Hamas, which touched off the battle in Gaza when it launched its October 7, 2023, terror assault that killed about 1,200 principally Israeli civilians, has additionally suffered vastly, in accordance with the most recent U.S. assessments.
“Militarily, they’ve been considerably diminished,” Holmgren mentioned. “They’re basically morphing into an rebel power on the bottom.”
But regardless of being compelled to maintain a low profile and resort to hit-and-run-type techniques, U.S. intelligence sees few indications Hamas has misplaced its attraction.
“Hamas has been capable of recruit new members to its ranks and can possible proceed its potential to take action, as long as there may be not one other viable political choice on the bottom for these disaffected younger males in Gaza to show to,” Holmgren mentioned.
“There needs to be a extra viable political actor on the bottom in Gaza to present these new recruits for Hamas, to present them a greater choice,” he added.
Hamas, Hezbollah numbers
Previous to Hamas’ October 7 assault on Israel, U.S. intelligence estimated that the U.S.-designated terror group had between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters, although some estimates put the quantity at 30,000 or extra, citing assist from a few dozen different terror teams that had pledged to struggle beneath the Hamas banner.
Hezbollah, in accordance with U.S. estimates, had about 40,000 fighters with “state-like army capabilities.”
Holmgren on Tuesday didn’t elaborate on what number of fighters from both group had been eradicated.
Israeli officers, nevertheless, have mentioned their forces have killed upward of 14,000 Hamas fighters and greater than 2,550 Hezbollah fighters.
The Israel Protection Forces earlier this month mentioned it estimates that about 80% of Hezbollah’s arsenal of medium- and short-range rockets has been destroyed.
Well being officers in Gaza have mentioned the Israeli offensive there has killed greater than 43,000 Palestinians, greater than half of them girls and kids.
Lebanon’s Well being Ministry mentioned greater than 3,000 individuals have been killed throughout the battle, although it doesn’t differentiate between civilians and Hezbollah fighters.
Terror spreading
There are rising issues, although, that the loss of life tolls in Lebanon and Gaza are serving as a spark for different terror teams all over the world.
Lower than a month after Hamas’ October 7 assault on Israel, U.S. counterterrorism officers warned that the occasion had begun to impress different terror teams, together with Islamic State and al-Qaida.
Holmgren mentioned it seems the Hamas assault, mixed with rising political and financial turmoil, has in truth helped to reenergize different teams.
Islamic State
“ISIS exploited diminished counterterrorism strain final 12 months to get better and to rebuild as governments shifted consideration and sources to the battle in Gaza,” Holmgren mentioned, utilizing an acronym for the Islamic State terror group, also called IS or Daesh.
Central Syria, he mentioned, had grow to be an epicenter for IS plotting towards the U.S. and the West, at massive.
And though a collection of current operations by the U.S. and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have once more weakened IS, the group continues to learn from improved funds and resurgent media campaigns, Holmgren mentioned.
The IS affiliate in Afghanistan generally known as IS-Khorasan has likewise proven resilience.
State Division officers, in a current inspector common’s report, admitted that critical questions stay about whether or not Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban “have the desire and functionality to completely get rid of terrorist secure havens or management the stream of international terrorist fighters in and thru Afghanistan.”
And though key parts of IS-Khorasan have fled Afghanistan for Pakistan, there are fears the group could also be poised for a resurgence.
“Sustained strain will likely be wanted to stop the group from increasing additional,” Holmgren mentioned.
Africa
Holmgren additional warned that teams affiliating themselves with IS and al-Qaida are additionally seeing their fortunes rise in Africa.
IS and al-Qaida assaults in West Africa and the Sahel alone are set to surpass greater than 3,000 by the tip of the 12 months, he mentioned, doubling the overall variety of assaults from 2021.
And it may worsen.
Holmgren mentioned IS and al-Qaida associates have capitalized on turmoil in nations akin to Mali, Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic, the place governments have turned to the Russian army and Russian paramilitary teams to spice up safety.
The state of affairs in Africa, “if left unchecked, may grow to be a way more acute long-term menace to U.S. pursuits,” he mentioned.
Youthful terrorists
U.S. counterterrorism analysts have additionally picked up on a number of different developments that they are saying bear watching.
One is a propensity for youthful individuals to hitch terror actions.
“The rising variety of juveniles partaking in terrorism is a world phenomenon, and it might properly worsen within the close to time period as the results of the Israel-Hamas battle take maintain,” Holmgren mentioned.
Weak younger individuals the world over, he mentioned, are turning to teams like IS for a way of belonging and accomplishment.
“Plenty of the propaganda — it is simply accessible on the social media platforms” he mentioned. “Plenty of it [is in] English.”
Iran and Trump
There’s additionally concern about how Iran will reply to Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas, and to the reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
U.S. intelligence officers warned within the run-up to final week’s election that Iran was engaged in a collection of affect operations geared toward hurting Trump’s likelihood of returning to energy.
And late final week, the U.S. make clear one other in a collection of efforts by Tehran to assassinate the as soon as and future president.
Within the brief time period, Holmgren mentioned, Iran may attempt to leverage its proxy forces in Iraq and Syria to launch extra assaults towards U.S. pursuits and towards Israel.
However he additionally expressed concern that Iran continues to play host to al-Qaida’s de facto chief, Saif al-Adel.
“I will not speculate on what the Iranian intentions are, however suffice to say, it’s unhelpful along with his presence there,” Holmgren mentioned Tuesday in response to a query from VOA.
Trump transition
Holmgren promised Tuesday to work with the incoming Trump administration to maintain the U.S. and its allies secure.
“I stay up for partaking with the Trump administration’s nationwide safety staff to conduct an orderly transition and to make sure that they’re prepared on Day One to handle a dynamic menace surroundings,” Holmgren mentioned.
“The U.S. counterterrorism group will likely be working diligently, as they do every day, to maintain threats at bay in order that our democracy might proceed to shine as a beacon of freedom and hope on the earth,” he added.
