David Stearns’ Mets maintain virtually all the perimeters with mission in opposition to Braves clear

You don’t want an Ivy League diploma (Mets proprietor Steve Cohen and baseball president David Stearns have them) or analytics experience (the Mets make use of as many numbers crunchers as anybody) to grasp that the 2024 Mets’ possibilities to make the playoffs and get rid of the hated Braves are higher than ever now.

Whereas FanGraphs places the Mets’ October alternative at 76.2 p.c, their possibilities appear even higher than that.

All of the Mets must do is win the extremely anticipated sequence in Atlanta that begins Tuesday night time. That’s it, take two out of three and their ticket is punched for very significant video games in October (and even when they win solely one among three, they nonetheless maintain the sting with a sequence to go in Stearns’ outdated stomping grounds of Milwaukee).

Stearns informed The Submit in spring coaching he believed they had a “playoff caliber” team, and for as we speak he appears to be like proper about that, and nearly every thing else, too. He’s nearly as good as marketed when Cohen signed him to a near-record contract, full with postseason incentives that weren’t anticipated to return into play till 2025. Pretty, too, it doesn’t harm to have a tiny little bit of luck (extra on that under).

The Mets hit Atlanta with all the benefits, with the plain exception of current historical past, the place the Braves are virtually pitching a shutout in opposition to the Mets.

• The Mets are the warmer crew. In a league of ridiculous parity (excepting the White Sox, who already tied the 1962 Mets record with their a hundred and twentieth defeat), the Mets’ 63-37 report since June 1 is the majors’ finest, as is their 15-5 September mark.
• They hit higher than the Braves. The Mets possess one among baseball’s deepest lineups, and currently they’re even getting monumental contributions from the two fellows who replaced MVP candidate Francisco Lindor. One man is extra exceptional than the subsequent.

Rookie fill-in shortstop Luisangel Acuña, a “blessing” in response to one Mets particular person (no pun meant), has a 1.000 slugging percentage over the week, which is healthier than most everybody however Shohei Ohtani. (Not even Mets folks noticed this coming, not after Acuña posted a .654 OPS in Triple-A.)

Now for that little little bit of luck. Rival execs counsel Acuña was the highest-ranked prospect the Mets have been critically listening on on the deadline. Properly, they didn’t commerce him, and the idea of crew execs now’s that he’s a participant who prefers the massive stage, the place they discover themselves now. Meantime, Lindor’s leadoff alternative, the very veteran Jose Iglesias, leads the majors amongst gamers with 260 plate appearances with a .337 batting common — not unhealthy for a man who signed minors offers 4 years operating.

(The one casualty of Lindor’s painful again damage is his MVP hopes, as Shohei Ohtani, pretty, clinched the award with an historic and otherworldly week.)

• They’re the more healthy crew. The Braves are with out a number of stars, together with Luisangel’s brother, reigning MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. (it should really feel good to have the star Acuña for a change!), plus Spencer Strider, Austin Riley and Reynaldo Lopez.

The Mets, fairly frankly, convey the higher energetic roster.

In the event that they do make it, credit score to the gamers, who exceeded virtually solely middling expectations. And credit score to Stearns and Co. Stearns was the man Cohen wished all alongside, and he appears to be like well worth the two-year wait.

If Stearns didn’t bat 1.000, he got here nearer than simply about anybody, and that wasn’t straightforward in a transition 12 months once they allotted below $100M for brand spanking new participant offers (or lower than 10 p.c what Cohen spent the earlier three seasons on participant contracts). The misses have been principally in low-cost flyers — Adrian Houser, Jorge Lopez, Jake Diekman, Michael Tonkin — and scarcely price mentioning, barely tip cash for the proprietor.

Stearns hit homers on the three largest choices amongst many glorious calls.

Luis Severino overcame 4 years of accidents and a 2023 season during which he declared himself “the worst pitcher within the majors,” thanks to raised well being and large work. For $13M, he’d be the NL rotation deal of the 12 months if not for rotation-mate Sean Manaea ($26M for 2, plus an decide out).

Manaea already was exhibiting critical enchancment when he determined to emulate doubtless NL Cy Younger winner Chris Sale after watching Sale shut down the Mets midseason. Manaea modified his arm slot, altered his pitch combine and changed into a seven-inning star, the sort that hardly exists in MLB anymore.

The largest name, in the end, was to convey Carlos Mendoza throughout city after lacking out on managerial star Craig Counsell (nearly as good as Counsell is, the Mets look clever to not have outbid the Cubs). Mendoza, a Supervisor of the 12 months candidate, is proving to be the wanted regular chief.

Sure, every thing goes their method. But when they don’t make it out of Atlanta alive, nobody will recall they improved dramatically from final 12 months’s debacle, got here again from an 0-5 begin, or that for 100 video games anyway, they have been baseball’s finest crew. The strain is on, however this time they appear like they’re greater than as much as the problem.