The Cowboys have been enjoying higher soccer as of late, profitable three of their final 4 video games and searching genuinely elite on the defensive facet of the ball. Nevertheless, they haven’t precisely been dealing with the cream of the crop.
On Sunday night time, they’ll be enjoying in opposition to the 8-6 Buccaneers, who’re within the driver’s seat for the NFC South race however must maintain their foot on the fuel. Unsurprisingly, the Cowboys are underdogs on this one, however our writers aren’t unanimous of their view of how issues will go.
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Hole self-discipline
Everyone knows concerning the Cowboys go rush, and it’s enjoying at a really excessive stage proper now, however that’s distracted everybody from the truth that this run protection continues to be not nice. The Buccaneers aren’t probably the most run-heavy workforce on the market, presently sitting 14th in whole dashing makes an attempt, however they’re probably the most environment friendly.
The Buccaneers are eighth in EPA/rush, tied with the 49ers, and their 5.2 yards per carry is second solely to the Ravens. The duo of Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving has been electrical, as each are able to working inside and out of doors the tackles in Liam Coen’s numerous run recreation. Dallas nonetheless struggles in opposition to the run – they’ve “improved” to thirtieth in EPA/rush over the past six weeks – they usually’ll want an enormous exhibiting on this one to restrict the Buccaneers offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Keep away from third down
Head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles goals to get groups in third and lengthy conditions. He has a various set of blitz packages that he unleashes on quarterbacks in third and lengthy. Tampa Bay leads the league in third down blitz fee and is just giving up 5.4 yards per go try on third down.
Evaluate that to the Cowboys, who come into this recreation ranked twenty third in EPA/dropback on third down. Coincidentally, they’re additionally twenty third in third down conversion fee. If the Cowboys hope to have any success in opposition to this Buccaneers protection, they should emphasize transferring the chains on first and second down, thereby stopping Bowles from digging into his bag of methods.
Now onto the predictions out of your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (9-5):
Nicely, I used to be actually improper final week. The Cowboys regarded good. The query is simply how a lot was the Panthers reverting to (dangerous) type, and the way a lot was Dallas rallying to satisfy the seemingly infinite damage challenges?
Now they face a Tampa Bay workforce that’s making an attempt to seal the deal on a playoff spot. It’s a dwelling recreation for the Cowboys, which is an actual drawback this season. I believe we’ll see extra resilience and struggle from Dallas, however in opposition to a workforce that’s only a bit higher.
The Bucs win 31-27.
Matt Holleran (9-5):
The Cowboys come into this matchup recent of their most dominant win of the season over the Panthers. Whereas as a workforce they’ve been enjoying higher of late, this matchup in opposition to Tampa Bay will likely be a real check of how far the Cowboys have come.
This gained’t be a straightforward recreation, and I see Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense constantly transferring the ball in opposition to Dallas’ protection being the distinction. The Cowboys put up one other good struggle, however the Bucs offense is simply an excessive amount of.
Give me Tampa Bay, 26-20.
Jess Haynie (10-4):
Tampa Bay has actual issues to play for this Sunday. The Cowboys’ current wins have solely come in opposition to cupcakes. Each groups have proven sufficient good and dangerous that it may go both method, however the most probably end result has Tampa’s further motivation giving them the decisive edge.
Bucs 27, Cowboys 23.
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Mike Poland (7-7):
This recreation merely comes down to 2 issues. Can Tampa Bay’s offensive line maintain again the wave of strain this Cowboys line of defense has been delivering? And might Dallas decelerate Bucky Irving dashing like a mad canine?
If the line of defense can get to Baker Mayfield and cease him having his method together with his top-3 receivers, plus cease one of the best rookie working again within the league, then victory ought to fall to Dallas. The Bucs have allowed probably the most receptions on protection this 12 months and have struggled to defend the go, that’s not signal for them after what this Cowboys offense managed final week in opposition to Carolina.
Cowboys win- 24-20.
Dana Bartholomew (11-3):
I imagine the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are higher than their file reveals. Their schedule has been stuffed with robust opponents which can be probably making the playoffs this 12 months. And since Mike Evans has returned from damage, the workforce is 4-0.
Whereas the Cowboys additionally improved over the previous few weeks, I’m not assured that it is going to be sufficient to sort out the present chief of the NFC South. The Buccaneers are in a decent race of their division and can’t afford to lose this one.
I’m choosing the Bucs to win, 30-20.
Brian Martin (9-5):
The Dallas Cowboys regarded fairly good each offensively and defensively final week in opposition to Carolina Panthers, who have been arguably the worst workforce in your complete league. I’ve my doubts they will replicate that success this week in opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Due to that, give me Tampa Bay 27-17.
RJ Ochoa (10-4):
The Dallas Cowboys gained final week and predictably acquired little or no credit score for it as a consequence of the truth that they beat the Carolina Panthers. I perceive that, however I do assume that we’re ignoring the standard of how the Cowboys themselves performed.
Possibly the Christmas spirit is attending to me, however I’m going to imagine that it continues a minimum of yet one more week. Give me the Cowboys at dwelling and with somebody lastly providing us a celebration that entails the Salvation Military kettle.
I’ll take Dallas to win, 27-23.
David Howman (9-5):
I believe this recreation comes all the way down to Baker Mayfield greater than something. I’ll preface by saying I’m an enormous believer in Mayfield, however he tends to play higher when he has a chip on his shoulder. This previous week, he eviscerated an elite Chargers protection that everybody anticipated him to battle in opposition to. Now, his workforce is favored by 4.5 factors on the street.
Mix that with a downright deadly Dallas protection and I believe there’s an opportunity we see Mike Zimmer drive some errors from Mayfield. I don’t love the matchup on the opposite facet, as Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coach, however I believe the Cowboys’ offensive tendencies the final month provide a route to success in opposition to this Buccaneers protection. It’ll take an almost good recreation from Cooper Rush, which is asking rather a lot, however he’s delivered in prime time earlier than.
Name me loopy, however Cowboys win 28-20.
