In the end, the 2024 NFL season is upon us. We get issues began with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs internet hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of final season’s AFC title sport.
There are stars galore on the sphere for this one, starting, after all, with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The league’s two most up-to-date MVPs and two of essentially the most distinctive and prolific playmakers in current reminiscence might be challenged in disparate methods by two of the NFL’s finest defenses, and we needs to be handled to a schematic delight given the teaching expertise on either side of the sphere.
Earlier than we break down the matchup in full, this is a have a look at how one can watch the sport.
watch
Date: Thursday, Sep. 5 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas Metropolis)
Channel: NBC Stream: fubo
Comply with: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -3; O/U 47 (by way of SportsLine consensus odds)
When the Ravens have the ball
Baltimore struggled to place up factors within the AFC title sport, and for a lot of the sport struggled to maneuver the ball as effectively. Of its first eight drives of the sport, solely two gained greater than 30 yards, and just one went multiple yard into Kansas Metropolis territory.
The Ravens then put collectively a five-play, 63-yard drive that ended with Zay Flowers‘ fumble close to the objective line; a 12-play, 74-yard drive that ended with Deon Bush choosing off Lamar Jackson in the long run zone; and a nine-play, 29-yard drive that culminated in a Justin Tucker subject objective to chop Kansas Metropolis’s result in 10 earlier than the Chiefs simply ran out the clock. That is 145 yards on 32 performs (4.5 per play) throughout the primary eight possessions (considered one of which was a kneel-down), adopted by 166 yards on 29 performs (5.7 per play) throughout the ultimate three.
Baltimore’s operating sport was nearly non-existent, even earlier than the Ravens primarily determined to surrender on it. Gus Edwards had a 15-yard run on the second drive of the sport, however he, Justice Hill and Zay Flowers in any other case mixed for simply 12 yards on seven carries. Jackson noticed his passing home windows shrunk by Steve Spagnuolo’s suffocating secondary, whereas on the similar time Kansas Metropolis’s blitzing move rush bore down on him and compelled him into errant throws and dangerous selections. He completed simply 20 of 37 for 272 yards, one landing and one interception.
Not lots of the modifications which were made since late January work in Baltimore’s favor. The Ravens have swapped out three of their 5 beginning offensive linemen (Morgan Moses, Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson), for instance, they usually haven’t added a lot in the best way of difference-making pass-catchers (they misplaced Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Devontez Walker). What they did add, although, is Derrick Henry. And he modifies the run-game math significantly.
Jackson has lengthy juiced the effectivity of his backfield mates, and Henry has after all been remarkably environment friendly for many of his profession. He noticed his yards per carry plummet over the past two years, however the hope is that enjoying subsequent to Jackson and behind a line that isn’t the worst within the NFL can reinvigorate him. He nonetheless wants solely a sliver of house to devastate a protection, and no one within the NFL is healthier at creating these slivers than is Jackson. Throw within the reality the Kansas Metropolis’s protection is a lot better in opposition to the move than the run, and also you doubtlessly have a recipe for a a lot completely different sport than the one we noticed eight months in the past.
If the Ravens fall behind, although, or if Kansas Metropolis’s run protection is ready to corral Henry after quick beneficial properties reasonably than permitting explosives, then the Chiefs do nonetheless have comparable pass-game benefits to these that they had final 12 months. Related is the important thing distinction there, although, as a result of there are maybe just a few extra areas the Ravens can doubtlessly exploit — specifically at cornerback, the place L’Jarius Sneed is being changed by a conglomeration of younger gamers, none of whom has apparently stood out sufficient to be named the definitive starter.
Whether or not that spot is exploitable for Baltimore relies upon not less than partially on whether or not star Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie shadows Zay Flowers all over the place he goes, or if Flowers is in a position to attract considered one of Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams, Chamarri Conner or Nazeeh Johnson into house and work in opposition to them as an alternative. Flowers is Jackson’s most explosive pass-catcher, and the one capable of separate from defenders most shortly. He’s primarily a human joystick, and if Todd Monken can scheme him into house and Jackson can shortly and decisively discover him, there are yards available. The identical is doubtlessly true for Mark Andrews in opposition to the Chiefs’ two-high coverages, that are at instances susceptible to passes in the course of the sphere. That is the place Jackson and Andrews do their most injury, and it will fall on Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal, Justin Reid and Bryan Cook to encompass the massive tight finish and take away his pictures up the seam and his YAC alternatives on crossers.
The Ravens can even should discover a approach to neutralize Spagnuolo’s pressures in a approach they principally have not in earlier matchups. The Chiefs have blitzed Jackson on 39.2% of dropbacks throughout his profession, the second-highest price amongst groups in opposition to whom he has performed multiple sport. He is accomplished simply 53% of his passes at a mean of seven.0 yards per try on these performs, and he is transformed simply 26.7% of third-down alternatives when blitzed. If the Ravens cannot work out a approach to win in these conditions, it will be troublesome for them to recover from the soar and beat the Chiefs themselves.
When the Chiefs have the ball
We’re prone to see pretty vital change on this aspect of the matchup.
The Ravens noticed a training exodus on the defensive aspect of the ball this offseason, with Mike Macdonald leaving to take the head-coaching job in Seattle, Dennard Wilson changing into the defensive coordinator in Tennessee and Anthony Weaver being employed because the defensive coordinator in Miami. Former linebackers coach Zach Orr takes over for Macdonald, whereas secondary coach and pass-game coordinator Chris Hewitt was given the extra title of assistant head coach. There’s some teaching continuity there, but additionally pretty vital mind drain. And it would not finish with the teaching workers.
Patrick Queen left in free company, as did Geno Stone, and Jadeveon Clowney. Eddie Jackson got here in to play the Stone function; the Ravens drafted edge rusher Adisa Isaac; they usually added extra our bodies within the secondary with Nate Wiggins (who appeared superior within the preseason), T.J. Tampa and Sanoussi Kane. Together with holdover stars like Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Justin Madubuike and Marlon Humphrey, in addition to sturdy contributors in Marcus Williams, Brandon Stephens, Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, Kyle Van Noy and extra, there may be lots readily available to stay a superb protection.
The query is whether or not the Ravens will have the ability to attain that degree once more straight away, in a hostile setting in opposition to the two-time defending champions. Having undergone a lot change this offseason, it is a troublesome ask.
That is very true as a result of Kansas Metropolis has made enhancements on offense. Second-round decide Kingsley Suamataia needs to be an improve over Donovan Smith at left deal with. First-rounder Xavier Worthy is readily available so as to add juice to the passing sport. On the very least, the receivers needs to be extra dependable than they had been for many of final season; they nearly cannot be any worse, and Rashee Rice ought to have a full-time function from the soar this time round, whereas Worthy seems to be set to be extra instantly concerned than Rice was final 12 months. Throw in Travis Kelce and his improvisatory rapport with Patrick Mahomes, and you might be as soon as once more cooking with fuel. (How the Chiefs handle Kelce’s reps to maintain him wholesome is one thing to observe. He took extra snaps off final 12 months than at any time in current reminiscence, and that ought to proceed this season.) Whether or not and the way Baltimore is ready to generate stress up entrance, and the way shortly that stress can get dwelling, will decide whether or not the new-look deep passing sport the Chiefs need to get again to might be operational on this one, however that is one other added aspect for the Ravens to cope with.
How the Ravens select to deploy their secondary in opposition to KC’s weapons might be an attention-grabbing factor to observe. Hamilton is the very best theoretical matchup for each Kelce and Rice. Who does he cowl? If he is on Kelce, does Humphrey comply with Rice? In that case, does Baltimore have anybody quick sufficient to maintain up with Worthy? If not, can Ar’Darius Washington grasp with Rice within the slot, regardless of a big measurement drawback? How massive a task will Wiggins play in Week 1? How will duties be distributed between Williams and Jackson once they go to a few security seems to be? Can Trenton Simpson capably deal with the function beforehand stuffed by Queen? All of those are questions with out apparent solutions.
Even when they’re adequately answered, although, there may be nonetheless the issue of coping with Mahomes himself. You’ll be able to have all of the solutions you need, and Mahomes can and sometimes will nonetheless beat you. Blitz, drop into zone, play shell coverages, play man… there may be nothing you may throw on the market that’s going to flummox both him or Andy Reid.
The Ravens ought to once more be a stable unit in opposition to the run, although the inside of Kansas Metropolis’s offensive line may generate some benefits, significantly in opposition to the non-Madubuike members of Baltimore’s defensive entrance. If Isiah Pacheco will get rolling downhill, that solely opens up extra alternatives for the Chiefs within the passing sport.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 23
Kansas Metropolis misplaced the house opener final 12 months, however that Chiefs workforce did not have Chris Jones and was enjoying with an injury-hampered Travis Kelce. This Chiefs workforce is wholesome and someway extra proficient than it was a 12 months in the past. The Ravens stay one of many high contenders to their throne, however it should take some time longer for the champs to be dethroned.
What does the SportsLine Projection Mannequin — up greater than $7,000 for $100 gamers on top-rated NFL picks since its inception — consider this opener? Try that prediction, in addition to picks for the entire Week 1 video games, right here.
