10 Touchdown Spots for Astros 3B Alex Bregman Forward of MLB Free Company

When the San Francisco Giants prolonged Matt Chapman final week, it wasn’t solely excellent news for Matt Chapman.

Heck, one can simply think about Alex Bregman doing just a little fist pump when he heard about it.

With Chapman, who had been anticipated to opt out of his present deal, now tied to San Francisco for $150 million over the following six years, Bregman is positioned to face alone as the highest third baseman on MLB’s 2024-25 free-agent market. In truth, he’ll arguably be the third-best participant after Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes.

In the meantime, it is hardly a footnote that Chapman and Bregman share an agent in Scott Boras.

He isn’t usually one to do extensions when considered one of his guys is so near free company, nevertheless it made sense to take action on this case. After what happened last winter, in all probability the very last thing he wished was two high-profile purchasers competing in opposition to each other for free-agent riches.

However what’s Bregman value? For that matter, the place would possibly he land?

With out additional delay, let’s get to speculating on each fronts.

Bregman is a youthful, higher participant than Chapman.

The primary level is past dispute, as Bregman (30-164) is Chapman’s (31-135) junior by almost a full 12 months. And as for the second level, the only thing Chapman actually has on his fellow third baseman is Gold Gloves.

Bregman has extra WAR (38.5 to 37.9), in addition to extra dwelling runs (187 to 178) and the next OPS+ (132 to 118). And that is solely counting the nine-year Houston Astro’s regular-season exploits. He is additionally a two-time World Sequence champion with 19 profession playoff dwelling runs.

“[Bregman] would fully change our clubhouse for the higher,” a rival basic supervisor informed ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

To make certain, Bregman is not the MVP-caliber performer he was within the late 2010s. You may even say he is having a down 12 months in 2024, whereby his OPS is a career-low .762 and his elbow has “little gremlins” making it liable to swelling.

The 2-time All-Star has nonetheless recovered from a gradual begin, posting an .832 OPS with 21 homers since Might 9. And whereas his elbow points are alarming on the floor, he would not have any structural injury to his ulnar collateral ligament.

It subsequently appears truthful to pencil Bregman in for a similar deal Chapman acquired, however with an additional 12 months on account of his youth. That may come out to seven years, $175 million.

Personally, I consider Bregman might go larger. My most recent projection for him was seven years, $210 million.

As for which groups might signal the 30-year-old at such charges, 10 come to thoughts that might worth him as a winner, a secure third baseman, a right-handed slugger or all the above.

Let’s rank these 10 groups in response to how a lot sense they make for Bregman.

10. Boston Crimson Sox

Document: 73-712 Third in AL East

2024 3B WAR: 3.3 (sixth)

Rafael Devers is a heck of a hitter, however Bregman can be a defensive improve over him at third base. He is additionally the affect righty hitter the Crimson Sox badly need, with a pull-oriented swing that will match completely at Fenway Park.

But whereas the Crimson Sox might hypothetically signal Bregman and transfer Devers to first base, that will put Triston Casas in an ungainly spot. And apart from, this crew wants pitching extra.

9. Toronto Blue Jays

Document: 69-77, fifth in AL East

2024 3B WAR: 3.8 (T-Third)

Although third base hasn’t been a WAR vacuum for Toronto, the image adjustments when the main focus is narrowed to offense. Blue Jays third basemen have a .295 OBP and 16 dwelling runs.

But even when the Jays wished so as to add Bregman subsequent to George Springer to broaden their stock of former Astros stars, would the curiosity be mutual? Barring extensions for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, Toronto’s quick future appears murky.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks

Document: 81-64, Third in NL West

2024 3B WAR: 2.7 (tenth)

The Snakes do not want a 3rd baseman now, however that will not be the case if they do not want Eugenio Suárez’s $15 million choice for 2025. Which would not be a foul thought, given he is a 33-year-old whose prime has been on skinny ice for a pair years at this level.

Alternatively, $15 million is not some huge cash for a man with Suárez’s creds. And just like the Crimson Sox, the Diamondbacks would do nicely to slender their focus to pitching this winter.

7. Chicago Cubs

Document: 75-70, 2nd in NL Central

2024 3B WAR: Minus-0.5 (twenty seventh)

It simply feels just like the Cubs want one other hitter, would not it? Their offense would possibly even be the very first thing that pops into one’s head upon considering the phrase “mediocre,” or at the very least a detailed second after that one bit from Mad Max: Fury Highway.

But even when Cody Bellinger opens up a spot by opting out of his deal, the Cubs will nonetheless have Isaac Paredes at third base and Michael Busch at first base. One might transfer to accommodate Bregman, nevertheless it’s clearly not probably the most pure match.

6. Washington Nationals

Document: 64-80, 4th in NL East

2024 3B WAR: Minus-0.1 (twenty sixth)

Bregman alongside CJ Abrams, James Wooden and Dylan Crews? Appears like enjoyable. And between that homegrown trio and a near-total lack [nods in the direction of Keibert Ruiz] of long-term commitments, the time certain appears proper for the Nationals to spend once more.

However what of Brady Home? The 21-year-old slugger is subsequent in line to affix the aforementioned core, and he is a bit too good on protection to maneuver to first base for Bregman’s sake.

Document: 77-67, 1st in AL West

2024 3B WAR: 2.9 (ninth)

Bregman shouldn’t be but an ex-Astro. And the plan, it appears, is to maintain it that means.

They talked a good game about wanting to maintain him within the spring, they usually’re again on it once more now.

This was Houston basic supervisor Dana Brown through the recreation in opposition to Arizona on Sunday night time:

Past being a great participant basically, Bregman is a incredible match for Minute Maid Park. He constantly outperforms his expected home runs exactly due to the Crawford Containers, which appear custom-designed for his stroke.

But even when the Astros are keen to re-up Bregman, how ready are they to take action?

As Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote, “Nothing within the Astros’ previous suggests they’re prepared to present” Bregman the form of deal he and Boras shall be searching for. He is proper about that, and never simply because this is similar crew that allow Carlos Correa and George Springer stroll.

The Astros simply aren’t prolific spenders in free company. Their $100 million take care of Carlos Lee from 2006 is the only nine-figure free-agent deal of their historical past, whereas the present regime topped out at $95 million for Josh Hader.

Moreover, if the crew goes to spend large cash to maintain anybody for the lengthy haul, it must be Kyle Tucker. He is a youthful, higher participant who’s due totally free company after 2025.

Document: 74-71, 4th in AL Central

2024 3B WAR: 0.2 (twenty fifth)

If the Astros do not hold Bregman, what are the probabilities he finds just a little style of Houston in Detroit as a substitute?

That is the place the Tigers reside, and they will be managed by A.J. Hinch for the foreseeable future. He beforehand skippered the Astros between 2015 and 2019, profitable a World Sequence in 2017 and an American League pennant in 2019.

In fact, there’s an unavoidable negative connotation that comes with bringing all this up. However the level is that if the Tigers resolve to make a run at Bregman, Hinch is there to be the purpose man within the recruiting effort.

And the Tigers ought to certainly need to make a run at Bregman, if for no different purpose than he suits them completely from each on-paper and timing views.

Third base is a transparent weak spot in Detroit, which might in any other case use a right-handed hitter to assist stability the lineup round Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. And with their first profitable season since 2016 in sight, it is time for the Tigers to make an aggressive play to regain AL Central superiority.

The query, in fact, is whether or not they’ll see it that means.

The Tigers have been among the many league’s top spenders between 2007 and 2017, however that was underneath Mike Ilitch. His son, Christopher, took management of the crew upon his demise. And again in Might, president of baseball operations Scott Harris didn’t sound overly confident that he’ll have the assets to spend large any time quickly.

Document: 79-66, T-2nd in NL East

2024 3B WAR: 3.8 (T-Third)

It isn’t due to Mark Vientos’ bat that the Mets are on this record.

Mentioned bat is an efficient one, so far producing an .877 OPS and 24 dwelling runs in 2024. A few of Vientos’ underlying metrics likewise leap off the web page, together with a barrel price within the 95th percentile.

As for his glove, nicely…his glove stinks.

That is true whether or not you are wanting on the 24-year-old’s Outs Above Common (minus-eight) or his Defensive Runs Saved (minus-seven). He solely has 4 errors, certain, however these solely rely for the balls he can get to.

There’s subsequently at the very least one good excuse for the Mets to contemplate upgrading on the scorching nook by signing Bregman. After which there’s the opposite: As a result of they will.

Steve Cohen is the richest proprietor in baseball, and back-to-back $300 million payrolls present simply how keen he’s to leverage his wealth in his pursuit of wins. But he is performed so in a novel means with free-agent spending, typically favoring quantity over quality.

If the Mets keep on with this tactic this winter, they would not need to cease at Bregman. To wit, they may signal Bregman and re-sign Pete Alonso and nonetheless find yourself spending lower than it will have price them to lure Juan Soto from the Yankees.

Or they may simply, you already know, signal Soto. Not simple to do, maybe, however definitely much less convoluted than signing Bregman and Alonso and transferring Vientos.

Document: 83-62, 1st in AL East

2024 3B WAR: 2.0 (18th)

As for that different crew in New York, this should not be the primary time anybody has skilled the Yankees being linked to Bregman.

Although the Astros have never seemed interested by buying and selling Bregman, there have been instances when his title has popped up on the rumor mill. And every time it has, Yankees-related hypothesis has invariably followed.

This traces again to the revolving door that the Yankees have had on the scorching nook. And whereas Jazz Chisholm Jr. has put a cease to it for now, one has to imagine it is solely momentary.

Third base shouldn’t be his pure place, and ditto for his earlier dwelling in middle area with the Miami Marlins. Chisholm’s finest place is second base, the place the Yankees can have a gap if Gleyber Torres seeks a recent begin elsewhere in free company.

Granted, there’s historical past that wants acknowledging right here. Bregman was on the 2017 Astros crew that was revealed to have cheated in beating, amongst different groups, the Yankees en path to profitable the World Sequence. Aaron Decide was none too happy about that.

But if the Yankees do go after Bregman, that alone would point out there isn’t any organizational grudge in opposition to him. It could merely reinforce their dedication to profitable, which could possibly be particularly sturdy if their championship drought extends to fifteen years.

Which in the end leaves only one complication: In comparison with re-signing Juan Soto, doing a take care of Bregman must be a distant second priority for the Yankees this winter.

Document: 73-72, 2nd in AL West

2024 3B WAR: 2.2 (T-Thirteenth)

Out of all of the groups that might theoretically get into the race for Bregman, no one wants him just like the Mariners.

They’re probably the most lopsided contender of 2024, as their million-dollar pitching workers comes with a ten-cent lineup. And which may even be an overvaluation of Seattle’s offense, which is by some means getting outhit by the Chicago White Sox.

The one factor Mariners hitters lead the league in is strikeouts, of which they’ve 1,470 for the season. That is the place including Bregman could possibly be particularly impactful, as his strikeout price has been within the 90th percentile or higher yearly since 2017.

The Mariners additionally simply want one other star to take some weight off Julio Rodríguez’s shoulders, and ideally one who’s been there and performed that earlier than. Randy Arozarena is, arguably, this man in concept, however he is simply not the certain factor Bregman has been all through his profession.

As they’re considered one of many groups in an uncertain place with their native broadcasting scenario, whether or not the Mariners might make the cash work is the massive query.

A technique round this, although, is to take a cue from historical past and assume Seattleites will flip up at T-Cellular Park in the event that they’re given a crew value watching. The Mariners can and have completed within the prime 5 of the AL in attendance, together with as lately as 2023.