The fourth annual iteration of the NBA Cup is officially underway, with the first set of group matches set to take place tonight. The league has done a great job making this event a real fan favorite, with cash prizes in place in order to light a little extra fire in their players. And if money wasn’t enough, the new anti-tanking policies have made intentionally losing games a bad idea.
It’s going to be a great month and a half. Now, the only thing left to do is predict which eight teams will advance from group play into the knockout rounds.
West Group A
Teams: Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, and Utah Jazz
The key to predicting who will succeed is finding teams that are both really good and have something to prove. In this group, that team is the Houston Rockets. Them and the Denver Nuggets are the two most talented teams in this section. The difference is that the Nuggets’ core has already proven their merit with an NBA Championship. Meanwhile, the Rockets are dealing with back-to-back first round exits — last year’s coming in disastrous fashion. The Rockets are better than ever now (5-0 to start the year), and I think they are ready to make a statement at the NBA Cup.
West Group A Winner: Houston Rockets
West Group B
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in this group, but devastating injuries to Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace have left them severely shorthanded (especially after the cost-cutting measures they were forced to take last year). The Minnesota Timberwolves are also dealing with a significant loss, as Anthony Edwards is going to be out for the entire tournament. However, LaMelo Ball has been doing just fine running the show on his own. Small sample size alert, but the Timberwolves have a +5.2 net rating when Ball is on the floor without Edwards. Like the Rockets, the Timberwolves also have something to prove with their revamped group.
West Group B: Minnesota Timberwolves
West Group C
Teams: San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers, Golden State Warriors, and Sacramento Kings
If we are continuing with the same theme of good with something to prove, the pick should be the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland Trail Blazers. However, the San Antonio Spurs are too darn talented, and unlike the Thunder, they are healthy (*knocks wood excessively*). This group is going to be a lot of fun to keep an eye on (unless you’re the Golden State Warriors or Sacramento Kings, of course). But I can’t bet on the team that made it all the way to the NBA Cup Finals last year.
West Group C Winner: San Antonio Spurs
East Group A
Teams: Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic, Milwaukee Bucks, and Brooklyn Nets
The Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic have both had some nice flashes, but with injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Suggs, and Paolo Banchero, it’s going to be tough to get past the Detroit Pistons, who continue to look like a regular season wins machine. I still have my reservations over the Pistons’ playoff viability, but even if Jalen Duren misses a few games, I still see them as the favorite to come out of this group.
East Group A Winner: Detroit Pistons
East Group B
Teams: New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, and Indiana Pacers
This is the best group of the entire first round. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these teams in the Eastern Conference Finals, and as a result, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these teams advance out of this group. With that said, I’m going to go with the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have the perfect blend of talent, health, and desire to prove themselves. The Indiana Pacers are going to be without Haliburton for a little while. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat are still working out some kinks, and the New York Knicks won this event last year and may be suffering from some championship hangover (in regard to their NBA title, not the NBA Cup lol).
East Group B Winner: Cleveland Cavaliers
East Group C
Teams: Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, and Washington Wizards
Like the Pistons, the Boston Celtics are a regular season wins machine. But I have a strange feeling that their tendency to get ice-cold from downtown and keep firing away could cost them in a tiny sample like this. For that reason, I am going to pick the Atlanta Hawks, who look connected, crisp, and deep to start the season.
East Group C Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Wildcard Spots
Along with the six winners of their group, each conference also gets one wildcard team — kind of like with the NFL playoffs. For this, I’ll go with the Celtics and Trail Blazers. The 3-ball may keep the Celtics from winning their group, but I think the teams outside of the Hawks won’t pose enough of a threat to them to interfere with their ability to advance to the knockout rounds. As for the Trail Blazers, the vibes are sky high with the Damian Lillard and Ja Morant pairing going better than anyone could have ever imagined. Some other names to keep an eye on: Heat, 76ers, Raptors, Lakers, Nuggets, and Memphis Grizzlies.
Wildcard Winners: Boston Celtics and Portland Trail Blazers
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