Texas Longhorns junior quarterback Arch Manning was expected to take the leap this season. He hasn’t, thus far.
Manning is no longer in the Heisman conversation after tossing 10 touchdown passes and five interceptions and ranking 44th nationally in QBR (65.6) in his first five games.
And he’s no longer in the QB1 conversation in the 2027 NFL Draft (scheduled April 29-May 1 in Washington). On Thursday, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. published his latest big board, which includes 25 players. Manning didn’t rank near the top.
Where did Arch Manning land on Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest big board?
Kiper ranked Manning QB No. 6 and No. 24 overall. Oklahoma State Cowboys sophomore Drew Mestemaker was his QB1, while Ohio State Buckeyes junior wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was his top-ranked player.
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 15, 2026
“I see the size, mobility and arm strength that NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback,” Kiper wrote of the 6-foot-4, 222-pounder. “But Manning is too inconsistent, especially when it comes to accuracy and decision-making. He’s going to be a tough evaluation. Watch just about any game he plays, and you’ll ride the roller coaster of getting excited about his NFL ceiling and then wondering whether he’s ever going to put it together.”
Manning’s performance in a 27-24 Week 6 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners is a prime example. In the first quarter, he tossed a 41-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Cam Coleman that would make scouts beam.
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 10, 2026
In the fourth quarter, however, he threw two interceptions that would make those same scouts go berserk.
ARCH MANNING THROWS A COSTLY INTERCEPTION WITH 20 SECONDS LEFT!! pic.twitter.com/Hq9o38IUzf
— ESPN (@espn) October 10, 2026
“Texas’ Arch Manning hasn’t been the disaster that social media would lead you to believe, but he also hasn’t developed at the pace NFL teams hoped,” wrote The Athletic’s Dane Brugler. “Plenty of evaluators around the NFL remain bullish that Manning will get there, but how he performs over the second half of the season will determine a lot.”
The second half of the Longhorns season will give talent evaluators a much better idea of where Manning stands in the QB pecking order. It includes plenty of tests for the 22-year-old QB.
The No. 7-ranked Longhorns (4-1) face four opponents that are currently ranked — No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (Oct. 24), No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (Oct. 31), No. 13 Missouri Tigers (Nov. 7) and No. 22 LSU Tigers (Nov. 14) — in their last seven games.
Texas hosts the Florida Gators (4-2) on Saturday at noon ET on ABC. The Gators have lost two straight but remain a quality opponent. As of Thursday, ESPN lists Florida No. 25 in its Football Power Index.
Manning’s draft stock will begin trending up if he thrives in those matchups. If it’s more of the same, though, he may return to school in 2027.
Clark Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.
