One 5-11 week is bad enough, but two? The NFL has me in quite a pickle right now.
I had a couple tough beats with the Jets losing by seven points and Arizona kicking a last-minute field goal to cover, but it isn’t much of an excuse when the Bills also snuck me a win by beating the Chargers by eight points.
Regardless, I need a bounce-back week in the worst way. Before we get into the Week 4 NFL picks, here is a look back at Week 3.
Season Record ATS: 19-29 Frey’s Pick: PIT -2.5
Both of these teams are 2-1 heading into this weekend, but I don’t really believe in either of them. That being said, the Steelers showed they can run the football in their win over the Bengals last week. Cleveland hasn’t done a great job of stopping the run. Steelers win a low-scoring affair.
Frey’s Pick: WAS +3.5
Both the Commanders and Colts got off the snide in big ways this past weekend. Their reward is a long trip to London this week. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts defense likely carries Indy to a win, but I’m going to say it’s a field goal difference on a neutral field. Frey’s Pick: NYG +1.5
Arizona tried to mount a comeback against the 49ers, but their defense held them back from actually accomplishing that. I think it holds them back again this weekend with Cam Skattebo bulldozing through their defensive front.
Frey’s Pick: BUF -6.5
The Buffalo Bills have been the best team in the NFL through three weeks, and the Patriots have a Drake Maye problem. Buffalo is yet to miss covering a spread this season, so I’m going to roll with them.
Frey’s Pick: CIN -2.5
The Jaguars are coming off a very impressive win against the Patriots while the Bengals struggled to slow down a Steelers offense that hasn’t exactly been stellar to start the year. However, it was back-to-back road games for Cincinnati, and now they’re coming back home. Jacksonville has had some trouble with their pass rush, and that could give Joe Burrow plenty of time to sit in the pocket and cook.
Frey’s Pick: HOU -2.5
At some point the ship has to stop sinking in Houston. The roster is simply too talented to continue losing like they have. A lot of the troubles have been seen on the offensive side of the ball in the absence of Nico Collins, but it looks like he could be back on the field Sunday against a Cowboys defense that ranks among the bottom of the NFL once again. I’ll take Houston one more time before I jump overboard.
Frey’s Pick: NYJ +3.5
It’s still a question mark as to who will start at quarterback for the Bears on Sunday: Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent. Keenum put together an inspiring game against the Eagles on Monday night, but can he do it again against a Jets team that, despite a 1-2 record, is playing some inspired football right now? We’ll see. I’ll take the Bears to win the game, but New York plays close enough to cover the spread.
Frey’s Pick: GB -3.5
The Packers have had a lot of time to sit with their embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Atlanta Falcons at home. Now they get to take out that frustration on a Buccaneers team that will be without Baker Mayfield. Green Bay bounces back on the road. Frey’s Pick: BAL -11.5
The Tennessee Titans aren’t a very good football team, and this is a revenge game for Derrick Henry in his first game against his former team. The Ravens have their struggles on defense, but they can bully struggling offenses. Ravens win big at home.
Frey’s Pick: LAR -3.5
Are the wheels starting to fall off in Philadelphia? It felt like that Monday night. Now, they are coming off short rest against a Rams team that may have seen a win stolen from them on Sunday night. Sean McVay has been great about bouncing back after losses, and I’ll trust that here.
Frey’s Pick: MIN -11.5
Is this a letdown spot for the Vikings? My guard is up, but this Dolphins offense is horrible, and it is only getting worse with De’Vone Achane out for the season. It also looks like Justin Jefferson avoided any major injuries to his ankle. Brian Flores will have something special cooked up for his old team.
Frey’s Pick: KC -3.5
For it only being Week 4, this is a huge game for two 3-0 teams that reside in the AFC West. The Chiefs look like they have fully gotten back to the form of a Super Bowl contender while the Raiders have been the surprise team in the AFC so far. Ultimately, I’m going to ride with the team that has Super Bowl resume and aspirations, but this could be a one-possession game with how Las Vegas is playing.
Frey’s Pick: SEA -7.5
I love the Seahawks here. The Chargers are reeling from an 0-3 start, and Seattle should be hungry going back home after their road loss to the Commanders. Sam Darnold will be sharper in his second game back from injury, and the defending champs get back on track.
Frey’s Pick: SF -2.5
Brock Purdy has been the MVP of the league through three weeks, and he has a big test this weekend against Denver’s defense. The Broncos have continued their trend of starting games slowly early on this year, and if that happens again against this 49ers offense, I just don’t see them finding their way back. Frey’s Pick: CAR +3.5
The Panthers offense struggled on the road against the Browns, but that shouldn’t be a problem against a Detroit Lions defense that has given up more points than anyone else in the league. Carolina’s got a strong group on offense, and they should be able to pull out this win at home.
Frey’s Pick: NO -2.5
The Saints have some trouble in their backfield with Travis Etienne out, but they haven’t relied on him for offense nearly as much as many people thought they would. This is also the 20th anniversary of the Domecoming Game after Hurricane Katrina: on Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons. The crowd will be insane. There just isn’t a way the Saints lose this game.
Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To … More about Josh Frey
Season Record Straight Up: 25-23
Week 4 NFL Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
