Week 3 shook up the PFM board. Washington beat Seattle without Jayden Daniels, Chicago handled Philadelphia with Case Keenum and Kansas City moved to 3-0 and took over the No. 1 spot. New England, Green Bay and Houston went the other direction after losses that exposed very different problems.
PFM’s Latest Ranking Changes page tracks every ratings update. This article focuses on the biggest risers and fallers from the September 29 update by PFM Team Score, while also showing where each team moved in the 1-through-32 rankings.
Score movement and rank movement split again. Washington posted the biggest Team Score gain and climbed three spots. Green Bay fell six places, the largest rank drop among these six, while New England took the biggest hit to its Team Score.
Week 4 snapshot: These moves compare PFM’s September 22 Week 3 update with the September 29 Week 4 update. The full board remains available in the 2026 PFM NFL Team Rankings.
One useful distinction: Green Bay’s six-spot fall was the biggest rank move among these six teams, but New England lost more Team Score. Washington led the risers by score movement, while Kansas City’s smaller gain was enough to move the Chiefs to No. 1.
1. Washington Won Without Jayden Daniels, and the Defense Finally Took the Ball Away
Biggest riser · +2.1 · No. 21 to No. 18
Week 3 Score 76.8
Week 4 Score 78.9
Week 3 Result: 33-31 vs. SEA
Washington entered Week 3 at 0-2 without Jayden Daniels, who is working back from a dislocated left elbow, and drew the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Marcus Mariota did not need to match Sam Darnold throw for throw. He needed to protect the football and cash in the extra possessions Washington’s defense finally created.
Mariota threw for 183 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, while Terry McLaurin caught six passes for 77 yards and a score. Seattle outgained Washington 437-258, but the Commanders won the turnover battle 3-0. Kain Medrano’s late pick-six turned the biggest of those mistakes directly into points.
PFM moved Washington from 76.8 to 78.9 and from No. 21 to No. 18. The yardage gap keeps this from looking like a complete turnaround, but the Commanders just beat an elite opponent with their backup quarterback. Daniels is also expected back at practice in some capacity this week, which gives Washington another reason to feel better than it did after the Dallas loss.
2. Chicago Just Won by 20 With Its Third-String Quarterback
Riser · +1.5 · No. 12 to No. 10
Week 3 Score 81.7
Week 4 Score 83.2
Week 3 Result: 27-7 vs. PHI
Chicago did not have Caleb Williams, who was out with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain, and Tyson Bagent only came out of concussion protocol the day before the game. So Case Keenum made his first regular-season appearance since 2023 against a 2-0 Philadelphia team. The Bears did not ask him to survive the night. They controlled it.
Keenum completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns, then added a rushing score. Chicago’s defense forced three turnovers, held Jalen Hurts to 153 passing yards and opened the second half with three straight three-and-outs. The Bears won 27-7 and never turned the game into the scramble it could have become at quarterback.
The win pushed Chicago from 81.7 to 83.2 and from No. 12 to No. 10. Williams’ hamstring still determines how high this offense can go, but Week 3 showed Ben Johnson can get through a short-term quarterback problem when the defense and run game give the offense room to operate.
3. Kansas City Is 3-0 and Back at No. 1
Riser · +1.3 · No. 2 to No. 1
Week 3 Score 89.3
Week 4 Score 90.6
Week 3 Result: 24-10 at MIA
Kansas City is back where PFM expected it to be: unbeaten and sitting at No. 1. The Chiefs did not bury Miami with 500 yards or a huge first half. They won the moments that decided the game.
Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III scored on the ground and through the air, Nohl Williams broke up a fourth-down pass with Miami still within one score and Travis Kelce finished the job with an 11-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
PFM moved Kansas City from 89.3 to 90.6, enough to pass Seattle for the top spot. The Chiefs were out-possessed and finished with only five more total yards than Miami, so this was not a statistical blowout. It was another example of Mahomes and Andy Reid finding enough answers to finish a game without giving an opponent the extra mistake it needs.
4. New England’s Depth Problems Showed Up All at Once
Biggest faller · -2.2 · No. 8 to No. 12
Week 3 Score 84.1
Week 4 Score 81.9
Week 3 Result: 6-35 at JAX
New England’s 20-3 win over Pittsburgh looked like a step forward. A week later in Jacksonville, the Patriots gave almost all of it back.
The yardage was nearly even, 317-315 in New England’s favor, but the game was not. Drake Maye threw two interceptions, the Patriots turned the ball over three times and Jacksonville scored 35 points. Travis Hunter’s end-zone interception kept New England from finishing one of its best first-half chances, and the Jaguars scored two third-quarter touchdowns in 18 seconds to break the game open.
PFM dropped the Patriots from 84.1 to 81.9 and from No. 8 to No. 12. Injuries are part of the context: New England played without A.J. Brown, Mike Onwenu, Dre’Mont Jones, Craig Woodson and Eli Raridon. But a roster carrying that many absences cannot also give away three possessions and expect to look like a top-10 team.
5. Green Bay Got Pushed Around at Home
Faller · -2.0 · No. 11 to No. 17
Week 3 Score 81.8
Week 4 Score 79.8
Week 3 Result: 14-35 vs. ATL
Green Bay’s loss was not subtle. Atlanta went into Lambeau Field and pushed the Packers around for most of the night.
The Falcons ran for 242 yards while Green Bay finished with 17. Bijan Robinson had 194 rushing yards and two touchdowns, Drake London added 194 receiving yards and Atlanta held the ball for more than 37 minutes. Jordan Love threw 53 passes because the Packers could not stay balanced, and four first-half possessions ended in three-and-outs.
PFM moved Green Bay from 81.8 to 79.8 and from No. 11 to No. 17, the biggest rank drop among this week’s six movers. Love still threw for 312 yards, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both made plays downfield. The bigger concern is what happens when the run game disappears and the defense cannot get the ball back quickly enough to keep the offense out of chase mode.
6. Houston Had a Plus-Three Turnover Margin and Still Lost
Faller · -1.5 · No. 13 to No. 15
Week 3 Score 81.3
Week 4 Score 79.8
Week 3 Result: 17-19 at IND
Houston got the kind of turnover advantage that usually saves an ugly offensive day. It still was not enough.
The Texans finished plus-three in turnovers against Indianapolis and never gave the ball away, yet they managed only 223 total yards. C.J. Stroud threw for 167 yards, and Houston needed a late Woody Marks touchdown to take a 17-16 lead before Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard field goal won it for the Colts with seconds left.
PFM moved Houston from 81.3 to 79.8 and from No. 13 to No. 15. The defense is keeping games within reach, but the offense just struggled against an Indianapolis group that had allowed 1,209 yards over the first two weeks. An 0-3 team cannot keep asking the defense to manufacture all of its margin.
What Week 3 Actually Changed for PFM
The risers won in three different ways. Washington stole possessions and got steady quarterback play from Mariota. Chicago beat a strong Philadelphia team with Keenum and a defense that controlled the second half. Kansas City stayed unbeaten and took over No. 1 without needing a perfect afternoon from Mahomes.
The fallers were just as different. New England’s depth and turnover problems turned into a 29-point loss. Green Bay lost control of the line of scrimmage. Houston wasted a plus-three turnover margin because the offense could not create enough yards.
Three games still are not enough to throw out everything PFM believed in August, but the regular-season evidence is getting heavier. Week 3 rewarded teams that found another way to win and punished teams whose recurring weakness showed up again.
See every Week 4 change, not just the six biggest moves.
Sources and PFM Data
- PFM 2026 NFL Team Rankings
- PFM Latest Ranking Changes
- PFM 2026 NFL Standings
- Commanders: 5 takeaways from Washington’s 33-31 win over Seattle
- Commanders: Jayden Daniels will practice in London this week
- Bears: Case Keenum and the defense lead a 27-7 win over Philadelphia
- Chiefs: Kansas City defeats Miami 24-10
- Patriots: 8 takeaways from New England’s loss at Jacksonville
- Jaguars: Jacksonville beats New England 35-6
- Packers: 5 takeaways from Green Bay’s loss to Atlanta
- Colts: Indianapolis holds Houston to 223 yards
