Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has a quarterback competition waiting in August, pitted against Kyler Murray at training camp, but according to CBS Sports, that won’t really matter because he’s destined to end up as a draft “bust.”
Tyler Sullivan sized up eight players flirting with the dreaded label last week, and McCarthy got the nod.
CBS Sports: McCarthy Will Bust
On his list, which included Michael Penix Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., and others, McCarthy could not escape the feared bust label.
Sullivan explained, “The decision to go with McCarthy over Sam Darnold — who won 14 games for the club in 2024 — blew up in the Vikings’ face. They missed the playoffs with McCarthy ranking as arguably the worst starter in the NFL, while Darnold went on to win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks.”
“After McCarthy ranked last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage, TD-INT ratio and passer rating, Minnesota brought in veteran Kyler Murray this offseason to compete for the job. Why he will bust: The Vikings brought in legitimate competition in Murray this offseason, and the veteran appears to have the inside track to winning the job.” McCarthy began the 2025 campaign — his first as a starter — with wild inconsistency and a barrage of injuries, before becoming the NFL’s sixth-best quarterback per EPA+CPE from Weeks 14 to 18.
“With Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the general manager who selected McCarthy, fired earlier this offseason, arguably McCarthy’s biggest supporter is no longer in the building. Our prediction: Will bust,” Sullivan concluded.
Vikings Fans’ Worst Nightmare
When the Vikings embarked on the 2023 season, most knew that Kirk Cousins, now a member of the Las Vegas Raiders, was on borrowed time and wouldn’t remain with the franchise much longer. That forecast turned out to be true, especially after Cousins tore his Achilles in October 2023. So, all eyes shifted to the future at quarterback for Minnesota, eyeing a deep 2024 rookie quarterback class.
The one thing that could not happen was a swing and a miss, as Minnesota has not nailed down the QB1 spot for the long term with an organically drafted signal-caller since Daunte Culpepper — 25 years ago. Fans debated whether Minnesota should trade up for Drake Maye that draft, roll with the aforementioned Penix Jr., or capitalize on McCarthy’s post-NCAA Championship flair.
The Vikings chose McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in April 2024, ushering in a new era. Four months later, he tore his meniscus, ending his rookie season and setting a foreboding tone for his future. And here we are, 26 months later, with outlets like CBS Sports calling him a bust. What Vikings fans dreaded the most could be unfolding in real time.
2026 as a Pivotal Year
Of course, Sullivan’s forecast is merely a prediction. McCarthy could redefine his career with the snap of two fingers, either by defeating Murray this summer in Minnesota’s much-anticipated quarterback battle. He could also assume the QB1 job if Murray gets injured during the regular season, which indeed happens somewhat frequently to Murray.
The 2026 season is an all-telling slate of 17 games to determine McCarthy’s future in Minnesota. If Murray seizes the QB1 job for the long haul, there won’t be many growth opportunities for McCarthy as a Viking in the long run. Suppose McCarthy takes over and balls out. He can just keep the top job in Minnesota, while Murray sets sail on a journeyman’s path around the league.
By February 2027, Vikings faithful will know if McCarthy is “the guy” or a trade asset.
Bust Label Too Early after Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield Examples
One might think that the NFL-themed sites would’ve learned its lesson by now. From 2019 through 2023, Sam Darnold was emphatically considered a bust. In 2022, after the Carolina Panthers expelled Baker Mayfield, his career had a similar trajectory. Heading into 2026, both are considered Top 15 quarterbacks in the NFL, a statement that would’ve felt laughable in the summer of 2023, for example.
McCarthy could flame out of Minnesota, but folks won’t know his true “bust” outcome until 2029 or so. Unless he’s a Josh Rosen-style bust, a team or two will be willing to give McCarthy more chances if he bounces out of Minnesota.
The former Michigan Wolverine also has youth on his side. He turned 23 in January, and it’s next to impossible to know a quarterback’s full talent at that young age. Age-27 McCarthy could be a vastly different player than age-22 McCarthy.
Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker
Vikings QB Competition Now Carries a Sharper Edge
