ESPN asked its football writers to put together a list of “100 things to know for the 2026 NFL season” and each team gets a few predictions thrown its way. The Cowboys ended up with five predictions.
Two predictions are about Dak Prescott, and they are c0nnected.
1. MVP candidates – Dak Prescott
Prescott’s incredible 2025 campaign was overlooked due to his team’s lackluster defense, but I felt he was actually the second-most valuable player in the league last season (and ahead of Matthew Stafford). If he plays the same way, and the Cowboys’ defense can be even just mediocre, Prescott will be an MVP candidate. — Walder
2. Best Bets – Dak Prescott to be the next player to record 400-plus pass yards in a game (+1000)
The Cowboys play Washington at home in Week 2, and the path is very easy to visualize: volume, aggressiveness, game environment, receiver upside and a willingness to keep throwing. Prescott threw for over 4,500 yards last season, and Washington had the third-worst coverage grade and second-worst rate of touchdowns allowed. It’s not a bet on certainty, but could it realistically be Prescott? Yes. — Maldonado
ESPN isn’t alone in thinking Prescott is an MVP Candidate. Pete Prisco had a similar take earlier this week.
“I think Dak Prescott, again, I say it time and again every single season, he’s the most underappreciated, underrated player in the National Football League. And if they had any sort of defense, he would be that much better.”
“Every time he took the field last year, he knew he had to put up big numbers, in large part because the defense was awful. I think the defense is going to be better. New coordinator, new system, better players. I love what the Cowboys did in the offseason on the defensive side of the ball. And Dak Prescott’s going to roll up big numbers.”
“[…] I think Dak Prescott is going to have a monster year.”
And why shouldn’t that monster year include a 400-yard passing game as ESPN is predicting against the Commanders?
In 2025, Prescott threw for 4,552 yards (#3 in the NFL), completed 67.3 percent of his passing attempts (#12) and threw 30 touchdowns (#4) for a QBR of 70.2 (#5). If the Cowboys had managed a better W/L record, Prescott would already have been a strong candidate in 2025.
But they didn’t, which brings us to ESPN’s next point.
3. Most improved teams – Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys can score points. With QB Dak Prescott, WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and the run game balance, Dallas averaged 26.6 points per game last season. But the key for 2026 is the defensive upgrades.
New coordinator Christian Parker will bring elements of Vic Fangio’s system to Dallas. Edge rushers Rashan Gary and Malachi Lawrence, as well as safety Caleb Downs, boost the Cowboys’ impact play ability. This team should compete for the NFC East title. — Bowen
The Cowboys offense actually averaged 27.7 points per game last year, but that minor quibble aside, Bowen’s take is correct.
The highest-scoring offense in Cowboys history was the 2021 offense that scored 530 points, or 31.2 points per game. What many people don’t know is the 2025 offense was on the same scoring pace as the 2021 offense for large parts of last season.
The chart below shows the moving average points per game by week for each of the two seasons.
The 2021 offense started off a little hotter than the 2025 offense, but the scoring pace of both offenses leveled out from around Week 7 and remained steady at around 29 points per game between Weeks 10 and 14. The 2025 team lost all playoff hopes after the loss to the Vikings in Week 15 and scoring dwindled after that, also because the Cowboys pulled their starters in the season finale against the Giants. The 2021 team in turn put up two 50+ point efforts in the last three games of the season as they were chasing their playoff seeding.
The 2026 Cowboys may score more points than the 471 they scored in 2025, but they are not going to exceed that by leaps and bounds. The key for 2026 will be to improve on the 511 points allowed (#32) last season.
One interesting oddity of the 2025 Cowboys season is how 30 points scored were a threshold for their W/L record: When the Cowboys allowed 30 or more points, their record was 1-7-1, when they allowed fewer than 30 points, they were 6-2.
The Cowboys are putting a lot of hope on their defense. From coaching, to scheme, to personnel, there’s almost nothing the Cowboys didn’t do to revamp a defense that finished dead last in the league in points allowed. That doesn’t mean the defense will suddenly transform into a top 10 unit, but if they could at least hold opponents below 30 points, that would already be quite an achievement and probably enough to get to the playoffs.
4. Position Battles – Cowboys cornerback: Shavon Revel Jr. vs. Cobie Durant
Revel largely caught a redshirt year in 2025, as his recovery from a torn ACL kept him out of action until Week 11. His great measurables and physical talent go up against the veteran experience and savvy of Durant, who was a productive corner in Los Angeles in a similar defensive system to the one Christian Parker will now run in Dallas.
Presumably, Revel and Durant are battling for outside corner snaps opposite DaRon Bland. But if both hit, they could kick Bland into his better position over the slot. Dallas’ CB room was a liability last season, and these two players have the greatest potential to change that this season. — Solak
The Cowboys pass defense had a lot to do with last year’s defensive meltdown.
15 of the 17 opposing starting QBs the Cowboys faced had a higher passer rating against the Cowboys than their season average. The combined season average for the 17 opposing starting QBs was a 91.5 passer rating. Against the Cowboys, those 17 QBs averaged a 111.4 passer rating. So on average, a QB playing the Cowboys increased his passer rating by 19.9 passer rating points last season.
Having a solid rotation at CB, and a coaching scheme that doesn’t have pass defenders running around the field like headless chicken, should go a long way towards improving last year’s 109.6 defensive passer rating (#31).
5. Offseason Nuggets – The George Pickens situation
Pickens signed his $27.3 million franchise tag, which the Cowboys are happy about. But he wants a long-term deal that Dallas won’t give right now. Whether Pickens develops a reason to sit out during the offseason or regular season could be something to watch. — Fowler
We’ve discussed the “Pickens situation” ad nauseam, no need to revisit it here.
What’s your take on ESPN’s predictions?
