Hello, friends. Is it that time of year already? Last week, TG’s Alex Perry and I revealed our Masters Power Rankings to try and steer us toward who will be awarded the 90th Green Jacket after the final putt drops on Sunday. But with Thursday’s opening drives now just days away, the odds have started to settle, and we can make a bit more of an informed judgment on where we feel the real value lies in this year’s Masters.
While I’ve got you – I’ve also done some Masters betting specials, including first-round leader and hole-in-one odds, if you fancy checking those out.
2026 Masters betting tips
Here’s where my money is going as the field begins their preparation at Augusta National. Just for fun, let’s start with my favorite outsider…
The Long Shot: Nicolai Hojgaard
80 e/w (Betfred 8 Places 1/5 Odds)
Nicolai Hojgaard is going to need to bust a few trends to win this week, but that’s why he’s 80/1 and not among the favourites.
By the data, he’s not old enough, his lack of PGA Tour win is a hinderance, and a lack of a top 10 – not only at Augusta, but at any major – suggests he can’t win. The fact of the matter is trends will eventually be broken. Hojgaard has shown major-contending potential on two occasions, including here in 2024, and he’s playing some of the most consistent golf of his career.
Twice he went into the final round of the Open Championship inside the top 11, including 9th last year. In 2024, he was also inside the top-6 at Augusta for the first three rounds, with a final-round 76 killing his chances of a first major top-10.
The Dane has grown as a player since then, though, despite all of his three DP World Tour wins coming before that 2024 Masters appearance. Four of his top-10 OWGR finishes have come since last summer, and in his past six starts he has finished 3rd in Phoenix, where he missed out by one shot, 6th at the Cognizant Classic, where he shot weekend rounds of 66 and 65, and then 2nd last time in Houston, where rounds of 62 and 63 were not enough to catch runaway winner Gary Woodland.
No one made more birdies (21) than Hojgaard here on his debut in 2021, and while he missed the cut last year, another trend he will have to bust, he’s certainly a top contender for me this week.
His previous best finish at Augusta is better than three of the last 12 Masters winners, with Danny Willett’s previous best effort being 38th, Patrick Reed’s being 22nd, and Scottie Scheffler finishing 18th on debut, before winning the following year. Hojgaard’s 16th is all the more impressive then, especially when you consider the number of birdies he made that week.
Hojgaard ranks 13th in SG Approach, 16th in SG Tee to Green, 23rd in SG Putting, and 9th in SG Total. 13th in Scrambling, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, Hojgaard is doing a great job of saving par this season, and that coupled with strong ball-striking and good putting is why he’s in such great form and why he could put a career-best performance together here.
He might not have posted a major top 10 – yet – but he’s certainly come close, and I think he’s priced generously given his current form and debut showing here.
The Outsider: Patrick Reed
33/1 e/w (Bet365 8 Places 1/5 Odds)
Patrick Reed continues to impress at Augusta, with four top-10 finishes in his seven starts since winning the Green Jacket in 2018, including a 3rd-place finish last year, when he was one of just two players to shoot four under-par rounds.
This is exceptional consistency for a man who lacks the necessary distance to overpower Augusta and instead puts his rounds together with craft and creativity.
Reed was, of course, a trends-breaker. In 2018, he won here at Augusta despite not winning since August 2016. Most Masters winners win in the same calendar year, so his preparation this year may well stand him in the best stead. In addition to lacking the distance and not winning in the buildup to his Masters victory, he also missed the cut at Augusta the previous year, another trend he broke, so now everything is aligning he is in a great position to win a second Green Jacket.
Sure, he’s playing on the DP World Tour rather than the PGA Tour, but he also never won on LIV in the buildup to Augusta either, finding his first win on that Tour in June 2025. Reed this year has won twice on the DP World Tour, winning the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters, as well as losing in a playoff at the Bahrain Championship.
He hasn’t played since finishing 10th at the Joburg Open a month ago, which is perhaps slightly concerning, as you would have liked to see him tee it up at least a little bit closer to his drive up to Magnolia Lane, but his experience here suggests he can overcome that.
Statistically, Reed leads the DP World Tour in SG Tee to Green, ranks 2nd in SG Approach, and 5th for Greens in Regulation as well. That is an incredible level of ball striking he’s been able to display and keep up since the start of this new season, and now he can continue to make his stamp on 2026, with another big week at Augusta.
My Second Favorite: Cameron Young
20/1 e/w (Betfred 8 Places 1/5 Odds)
This one was the toughest. I was always going to pick the man I did as my banker, but this was a straight toss-up between Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele in this position. While Schauffele has massively improved in recent weeks, it’s Young who just gets the nod.
In the end, it was the six-point difference in price and Young’s impressive win at The Players that tipped the scales. Sure, Young relied on Ludvig Aberg somewhat throwing it away at Sawgrass, but of the last 12 Augusta winners, nine have won at least one tournament in the calendar in the buildup, with the last four winning two or more.
Young knows how to make birdies at Augusta. He ranked 3rd for Total Birdies and Birdie or Better Percentage in both 2023 and 2024, both times ending the tournament inside the top-10. That shows he’s got the tools to score here, one half of a difficult equation and now it’s time to tidy the rest of his game up.
Young’s trouble is he’s been unavailable to keep the bogeys off the card here. In 2024 he recorded 13 bogeys and three doubles, hence failing to break 70 on the week, despite finishing in the top 10. In 2023, things were a bit smoother, making nine bogeys and three doubles, but it’s that propensity to make double bogey which is a little scary.
With that said, as of the end of the Houston Open, Young ranks inside the top-20 for Scrambling and 11th for Bogey Avoidance so far this season, huge improvements on previous years. In 2024 he came into the Masters ranking 69th in Scrambling and 71st for Bogey Avoidance, in 2023 it was far worse, ranking 155th in Scrambling and 103rd in Bogey Avoidance. So in the years where he posted back-to-back top 10s, he was struggling to get up-and-down and made bogeys far too regularly, whereas this year, he’s in the top 20 for both statistics.
This overall improvement in his game, and another year of experience at the course, even if it resulted in a missed cut, could well lead to Young’s best Masters finish to date, and if it does, we are least looking at an each-way payout.
He’s clearly a much-improved player from the one who posted back-to-back top 10s here, as he now has two wins under his belt, both of which have come since the end of major season in 2025. His 4th at Oakmont in the US Open last year was the latest of six major top-10s, and his third major top-4, leaving only Augusta as the place he hasn’t cracked the top-5.
This is the first time though that he’s going to arrive at Augusta, or indeed any major as a PGA Tour winner, and while the concern is that leads to increased internal pressure and expectations, it should ultimately lead to more confidence in winning one of these down the stretch, especially as he’s won the next-best thing to a major at TPC Sawgrass.
And our 2026 Masters champion is…
The Banker: Bryson DeChambeau
11/1 e/w (Betfred 8 Places 1/5 Odds)
I backed Bryson DeChambeau at 18/1 for this last year and now we are being asked to take 11/1, but I think that’s a fair reflection of continued progress the LIV Golf star has made at Augusta National once again, coupled with the fact he’s coming in on the back of two straight wins on LIV Golf.
He could easily have three wins from his last four events, but his final-round 74 in Adelaide, where both he and Jon Rahm were tied for the lead after 54 holes, paved the way for the comeback win of the ages, for Anthony Kim.
Clearly that fuelled the fire for DeChambeau, who outlasted both Richard T Lee and Jon Rahm to win both the Singapore and South Africa events in a playoff. On that note, I think it’s actually underrated how well Bryson has adapted to playing in different countries, having now won in the UAE, Korea, Singapore and South Africa. And while Augusta is it’s own beast and you need to figure that one out on it’s own, having a more versatile game can only help.
Gone are the days of DeChambeau referring to Augusta is a “par-67”, he has since humbled himself and truly made a run at the past two Masters Tournaments. In 2024 he led after round 1, and was still the co-leader at halfway, before successive over-par rounds caught him out and he finished 6th. Last year, he may only have taken one step forward in terms of position, finishing 5th, but he had a very legit chance of winning, having sat in the top-5 all week, and in 2nd place after rounds 2 and 3. Going into Sunday he sat two behind Rory McIlroy, who threatened to stumble, but Bryson’s approach play let him down over the weekend, and most crucially on the final day.
He still needs to improve his iron and wedge play, as he won in South Africa despite losing on Approach last time out, but he also hit the ball really nicely in his win in Singapore, and when contending in Adelaide, so there’s reason for optimism.
We know what he offers off the tee and we know he needs a better weekend on approach this time around, but what we also know is he is a fantastic putter, who also finally put his short-game demons behind him here 12 months ago, leading the field in SG Around the Green. That is surely a massive confidence boost for DeChambeau, who is going to be among the best drivers, and while last year he was far more accurate off the tee than he is this time around, I am still confident he can get the job done in that department.
He says he’s been working on his wedges, half shots, and his iron play heading into Augusta, and if there is one person I trust to follow a process all the way through to a positive result, it is DeChambeau.
Dive into his Masters record as a whole, and you will see he signposted the past two years of contention, when finishing 21st as an amateur, sitting 8th at halfway, when leading after round 1 in 2019, and when shooting 67 again in 2021. While he’s shot seven rounds in this 60s here at Augusta National, last year was the first time he broke 70 more than once in the same week, and he did so in each of the first three rounds.
Scoring won’t be the problem for DeChambeau here, as he has ranked inside the top-5 for Par-4 Performance in 2024, 3rd for Par-5 Performance in 2025, and 4th on the Par-3s in 2024, showing he can play well whether the holes are short or long at Augusta. The problem so far is that he has not been able to keep the bogeys off his card to take any sort of commanding position. He ranked 3rd for Birdie or Better Percentage last year, and in 7th for that same statistic in 2024, so getting the ball in the hole under-par regularly isn’t an issue, it’s the bogeys that hurt. Last year he made 12 bogeys and one double and in 2024 it was 13 bogeys and a double. That is then very slight progress, but he will need to stop throwing away holes. If he can do that, Rory McIlroy may well have to pop a Green Jacket on his shoulders come Sunday.
In terms of his main contenders for that item of clothing they all crave, Scottie Scheffler will need to improve on his iron play if he wants to put a third in his wardrobe, McIlroy has to overcome the defending champion curse and prove he’s fully fit after his back issues, and while Jon Rahm has been very good in 2026, he has struggled at Augusta since his win. While I do think McIlroy is bloody minded enough to become the first back-to-back Green Jacket winner since 2002, and Scheffler’s “poor form” is being overblown, it could be argued DeChambeau is the best prepared of the leading trio in the market, and that’s why he has to be the bet for me here.
There is no doubt he got caught up in the moment last year, as McIlroy edged him mentally despite fighting his own demons, but this time around he’s got two years of clear contending form here, and he clearly took many strides forward in 2025 – not the least with his around the green game.
He is the type to learn from his mistakes, and I am betting on him to do so here, as he continues to work on the mental part of his game.
