5 Causes Dallas Mavericks Can Make Historical past in NBA Finals Comeback vs. Boston Celtics

DALLAS — After the Dallas Mavericks clobbered the Boston Celtics, 122-84, in Friday’s Recreation 4, you may be certain some type of “Can Dallas pull off the unthinkable?” will float across the web and hot-take reveals between now and Recreation 5.

The brief reply to the query might be “Nope.” However as a former Celtic as soon as advised us, anything is possible.

When it comes right down to it, there are a couple of causes Dallas might be the primary crew in NBA historical past to finish a sequence comeback after falling into an 0-3 gap.

The most important ones may be discovered under.

Dallas bought blown out in Boston in Recreation 1. And within the first two video games, each on the highway, Kyrie Irving shot 13-of-37 (35.1 p.c) from the sector.

After all, the largest drawback for Dallas now that we’re at Recreation 5 is that the Celtics have been a juggernaut on the Backyard all through 2023-24.

Once you mix common and postseason outcomes, Boston is 45-6 at dwelling. The crew is plus-730 factors there, a mark that trails solely the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks and 2015-16 Warriors.

Sneaking one other win by a bunch that good by itself ground might be no small feat.

However Dallas has been sturdy on the highway this season.

Within the common season, the Mavs had been tied for fifth in successful share on the highway and tied for eighth in highway web score. Kyrie’s struggles in Video games 1 and a pair of apart, he averaged 24.2 factors and 5.0 assists on the highway in 2023-24 and had a better true shooting percentage in these video games.

Luka Dončić was predictably prolific in the identical setting. He averaged 33.5 factors, 9.6 assists, and 9.4 rebounds away from Dallas. And he, too, had a better true shooting percentage on the highway.

Successful, although, will clearly take greater than pointing to the stat sheet. Attending to these sorts of numbers in Recreation 5 might be powerful, as Luka and Kyrie are each all-time nice playoff performers.

They confirmed their delight and the ceiling they’re able to reaching in Recreation 4 after they mixed for 50 factors on 22-of-44 capturing with out having to play any of the fourth quarter.

When he was wholesome, Dante Exum was an X-factor for the Mavericks within the common season.

At 6’5″ with a 6’9″ wingspan, he is large for a playmaker. He would not maintain the ball, pushes the tempo a bit and is not afraid of difficult defensive assignments like both of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

However his three-point shot form of betrayed him within the first three rounds of the playoffs, and coach Jason Kidd clearly misplaced belief in him.

Within the common season, Exum averaged 19.8 minutes and shot 49.1 p.c from deep. Coming into Friday’s Recreation 4, he was at 6.4 minutes with a 26.7 three-point share.

However he infused a ton of power into the Mavericks in Friday’s first half. He hit two threes and was plus-15 in simply 14 minutes. He had a number of stout defensive possessions on Celtics guards and wings. And if he is again to his regular-season kind, he might be a legit game-changer.

Previous to the playoffs, Dallas was plus-2.6 factors per 100 possessions when Luka performed with out Exum and plus-16.6 when he performed with him. His low-usage, high-effort recreation regarded like an ideal complement to Luka’s.

However in fact, he isn’t the one potential swing piece off the bench. A number of that very same reward may be allowed to a different Australian, Josh Inexperienced, who’s even bouncier than Exum.

And naturally, there’s Dereck Vigorous II, who’s on monitor to complete the playoffs with extra wins over replacement player than anybody in league historical past’s ever piled up in an age-19 (or youthful) season.

Vigorous’s relentless exercise across the basket led to 11 factors and 12 rebounds in 22 minutes. He was plus-20 and hit a 3. Seven of these boards had been on the offensive finish, and people additional possessions had been large in demoralizing Boston early on. To at the present time, offensive rebounding stays certainly one of basketball’s most underrated types of shot creation.

“I feel individuals neglect he is a rookie,” Luka advised reporters after the sport. “He is a rookie doing these things. He is been superb the entire season.”

As this sequence goes on, Vigorous’s minutes are more likely to hold rising (beginning 5 Daniel Gafford solely performed 10 minutes in Recreation 4), and Boston would not actually have anybody to problem him bodily.

Kristaps Porziņģis was technically available on Friday, however he did not play a second, and it appears unlikely that he’ll for the remainder of the sequence.

If he does, he isn’t more likely to be 100%, and with out KP’s rim safety and scoring means as both a pick-and-pop or pick-and-roll risk, Boston’s merely not nearly as good.

The again line of protection is much extra formidable with a cell, 7’3″ shot-blocker. The driving lanes for Tatum and Brown are extra open when bigs must chase Porziņģis across the three-point line.

If he is out once more in Recreation 5, Dallas’ margin for error might be barely greater.

We dabbled on this take earlier, however Luka is a very ridiculous playoff performer. Dallas could also be down 1-3, nevertheless it nonetheless has one of the best particular person participant on this sequence.

Dončić is third all-time in profession field plus/minus in playoff highway video games behind solely Nikola Jokić and Michael Jordan. In 27 video games underneath these circumstances, he is put up 32.6 factors, 8.6 rebounds and seven.7 assists whereas hitting 55.2 p.c of his twos and 39.7 p.c of his threes.

If there’s one participant within the NBA proper now able to carrying his crew to 2 highway playoff wins in simply three video games, it could be Luka. Nobody appears to relish the chance to crush opponents’ followers fairly like him.

After all, that is not the likeliest path for the rest of this sequence. There is a cause Boston continues to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Finals. However Dallas would not want to consider overcoming an 0-3 deficit anymore.

“I mentioned originally of this sequence, it is the primary to 4,” Luka mentioned postgame. “And we will imagine till the tip. I’ve large perception on this crew that we are able to do it, so that you simply must hold believing.”

Now, they solely want three straight wins, and we have seen that as not too long ago because the 2016 Finals.

A complete of 156 groups have jumped out to a 3-0 sequence lead within the NBA playoffs. Not a single one has gone on to lose the sequence. Solely 4 wound up having to go to a Recreation 7.

The percentages are undoubtedly stacked towards the Mavericks, however somebody has to have the ability to make this occur sooner or later. And the NBA returning to the 2-2-1-1-1 format for the seven-game sequence appears like a plus for groups that fall into this gap.

That is very a lot a one-game-at-a-time scenario, and if the Mavericks can pull off an upset in Recreation 5, the quantity of strain on the Celtics in Dallas’ Recreation 6 might be immense.

Closing out a superb NBA crew on the highway is tough, and the Mavs ought to have the ability to play as free as they did on Friday.

At that time, they’d form of be taking part in with discovered cash. When you open a sequence with three losses, you are not even supposed to have the ability to make that sixth recreation (solely 15 have executed that).

Win that one, and all bets are off for a winner-take-all Recreation 7.