2025 Males’s NCAA Match Bracket: Newest Projection of the Area of 68

Faculty basketball’s “Feast Week” started this previous Thursday with seven champions of multi-team occasions already topped, but it surely was the Maui Invitational starting on Monday, quickly to be adopted by the Gamers Period Competition on Tuesday and the Battle 4 Atlantis on Wednesday, that actually upped the ante.

There must be various Elite Eight-caliber battles developing within the subsequent few days.

Naturally, this November nuttiness has us excited about March Insanity, so how a few new projection of the 2025 males’s NCAA event bracket?

In a while within the yr, a lot of the projected bracket evaluation will give attention to issues similar to NET, Wins Above Bubble and all kinds of efficiency-based and results-based metrics. However we cannot even get the primary batch of NET rankings for one more couple of weeks—normally round Dec. 5—and even these preliminary rankings can be a bit wonky, per typical.

In the interim, these projections are nonetheless largely based mostly on preseason expectations and KenPom rankings, although there’s a lot that has modified in these first three weeks of motion.

Equally, the 31 projected auto bids will finally be based mostly totally on convention document. There have not been any convention video games but, although, so we’re merely rolling with the highest-rated crew on KenPom as every league’s projected champ.

With that out of the way in which, let’s begin with the complete bracket earlier than some temporary commentary on the present state of the bubble and the highest seed line. Following that, we’ve a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting among the largest adjustments from one week ago.

East Area (Newark)

Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Pittsburgh vs. 9. Oregon

Milwaukee, WI
4. Cincinnati vs. 13. Yale
5. Ohio State vs. 12. Liberty

Windfall, RI
3. Connecticut vs. 14. UMass Lowell
6. BYU vs. 11. Drake

Raleigh, NC
2. Duke vs. 15. Lipscomb
7. Florida vs. 10. Dayton

Midwest Area (Indianapolis)

Wichita, KS
1. Kansas vs. 16. Little Rock
8. Creighton vs. 9. Saint Mary’s

Denver, CO
4. Purdue vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. Texas vs. 12. Grand Canyon

Raleigh, NC
3. Alabama vs. 14. Furman
6. Baylor vs. 11. Nebraska / Boise State

Cleveland, OH
2. Marquette vs. 15. South Dakota State
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Maryland

South Area (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. Saint Peter’s / Alabama State
8. Michigan State vs. 9. Xavier

Denver, CO
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. McNeese
5. Texas A&M vs. 12. Penn State / New Mexico

Windfall, RI
3. North Carolina vs. 14. Charleston
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Utah State

Wichita, KS
2. Houston vs. 15. Northern Colorado
7. St. John’s vs. 10. Michigan

West Area (San Francisco)

Seattle, WA
1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Bucknell / Central Connecticut
8. UCLA vs. 9. Arkansas

Seattle, WA
4. Memphis vs. 13. Excessive Level
5. Illinois vs. 12. UC Irvine

Milwaukee, WI
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Fort Wayne
6. Indiana vs. 11. Nevada

Cleveland, OH
2. Kentucky vs. 15. Kent State
7. Arizona vs. 10. Clemson

1. Auburn Tigers

2. Kansas Jayhawks

3. Gonzaga Bulldogs

4. Tennessee Volunteers

5. Duke Blue Devils

6. Houston Cougars

Frankly, if you happen to don’t love this prime line, simply wait a number of days and see how issues shake out within the numerous marquee occasions, as quite a bit might change in a rush this week. (See: Connecticut dropping to Memphis and immediately plummeting to the No. 3 seed line.)

Kansas and Duke are squaring off Tuesday evening in Las Vegas, the place Duke might make a near-unassailable case for a No. 1 seed by including a impartial win over Kansas to a resume that additionally now has a highway win over Arizona. Conversely, if the Jayhawks win, they possibly leapfrog Auburn for No. 1 general.

There’s additionally Alabama vs. Houston Tuesday in Las Vegas, each of whom are shut sufficient to the highest line that the winner will immediately have a robust argument for a No. 1 seed, significantly if that winner goes on to take first place within the Gamers Period Competition.

Within the Battle 4 Atlantis, Gonzaga would possibly have to undergo West Virginia, Indiana and Arizona to keep up/strengthen its No. 1 seed.

Auburn will face North Carolina on Tuesday and both Memphis or Michigan State on Wednesday.

The one one right here with out something big on the horizon is Tennessee, who already staked its declare to a No. 1 seed by dominating the Baha Mar Hoops Championship. Other than a troublesome highway recreation in opposition to Illinois on Dec. 14, it must be easy crusing for the Volunteers no less than till the brand new yr.

Fifth-to-Final In: Nevada Wolf Pack—Mainly broke even with two wins within the Charleston Basic.

Fourth-to-Final In: Nebraska Cornhuskers—Rallied from slim Saint Mary’s loss to topple rival Creighton.

Third-to-Final In: Penn State Nittany Lions—Weak competitors to this point, however the affect protection is promising.

Second-to-Final In: Boise State Broncos—Tyson Degenhart would possibly get this crew in all by himself.

Final Crew In: New Mexico Lobos—Blew out two SWAC groups to stay barely in subject.

****CUT LINE****

First Crew Out: Ole Miss Rebels—Undefeated, however let’s examine what occurs in Rady Youngsters’s Invitational.

Second Crew Out: NC State Wolfpack—Undefeated, however let’s examine what occurs in Rady Youngsters’s Invitational. [That’s not an accidental copy/paste. Both Ole Miss and NC State will join BYU and Purdue in that Thursday/Friday MTE.]

Third Crew Out: Georgia Bulldogs—Battled with Marquette, upset St. John’s and could be legit.

Fourth Crew Out: Stanford Cardinal—Gained at Santa Clara in enhancing to uncommon 6-0 begin.

Fifth Crew Out: VCU Rams—Tough week however no less than did not go winless in Charleston.

4 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 5. Duke; 12. North Carolina; 29. Pittsburgh; 39. Clemson

Additionally Thought-about: NC State, Stanford, Wake Forest, Miami

Largest Change: Hurricanes swept away

Early-season tournaments are a double-edged sword that might be a springboard to an incredible season or might be a colossal bellyflop.

For Miami, the Charleston Basic was very a lot the latter.

The Hurricanes weren’t the runaway favourite to win the event, however they had been a prime contender. It was just about a three-way tossup between them, VCU and Nevada.

They had been certainly presupposed to win no less than one recreation, although.

They did not.

Miami misplaced its opener in opposition to Drake by 11, the following recreation in opposition to Oklahoma State by six and the seventh-place recreation in opposition to VCU by seven, plummeting straight from a projected No. 8 seed to “Secure to simply about neglect about them till additional discover.”

In all three video games, the Hurricanes’ protection was abysmal, permitting no less than 1.20 factors per possession in every—this with out even dealing with Nevada, which in all probability has probably the most prolific offense of the opposite seven groups that had been on this subject.

Simply the newest entry in what has been a tough begin to the yr for the ACC as an entire.

At the very least Duke scored that highway win over Arizona, however as of Monday morning, Torvik had the league at simply 3-17 vs. Quad 1—Duke’s win over Arizona, Wake Forest’s win over Michigan and California’s win at USC—to associate with three Quad 4 losses. (The opposite 4 main conferences have a mixed complete of two such losses.)

That is not official Quadrant information, utilizing Torvik rankings as an alternative of NET rankings, which do not exist but. Nonetheless, it is a testomony to how poorly issues are getting into what’s trying like a four-bid, 18-team league in the meanwhile.

8 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 2. Kansas; 6. Houston; 9. Iowa State; 13. Cincinnati; 21. Baylor; 22. Texas Tech; 24. BYU; 27. Arizona

Additionally Thought-about: Utah, TCU, Kansas State, Arizona State, UCF

Largest Change: Crimson Raiders and Wildcats every drop a number of seed traces

Let’s begin with Arizona, who we additionally harped on on this part one week in the past.

Seven days after struggling a 15-point highway loss to Wisconsin, the Wildcats misplaced by 14 at residence in opposition to Duke. There have been considerably fewer fouls and free-throw makes an attempt than there have been within the recreation in opposition to the Badgers, however it’s regarding that Arizona—which had been the very best rebounding crew within the nation heading into that recreation—completed minus-13 on the glass in opposition to a Blue Devils crew that begins three freshmen.

The Wildcats will play within the Battle 4 Atlantis later this week, and so they would possibly drop out of our projected subject altogether if they do not win that event, contemplating they’re presently 2-2 with a pair of residence wins over groups that do not rank within the KenPom prime 300.

In comparison with that, no less than Texas Tech has 5 wins and suffered its lone loss by a one-point margin. Nevertheless, that loss to still-not-even-close-to-projected-to-dance Saint Joseph’s was an ill-advised misstep for a Crimson Raiders crew which will find yourself solely taking part in one nonconference recreation in opposition to a prime 75 opponent—a impartial recreation in opposition to Texas A&M in two weeks.

Alternatives will abound in Large 12 play, in fact, however not an incredible begin for Texas Tech.

5 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 8. Marquette; 10. Connecticut; 28. St. John’s; 30. Creighton; 35. Xavier

Additionally Thought-about: Windfall

Largest Change: Double whammy for Creighton

Taking part in at residence in a rivalry recreation in opposition to Nebraska that it was supposed to win by an 11-point margin, Creighton as an alternative suffered an 11-point loss to the Cornhuskers.

Large man Ryan Kalkbrenner scored 49 factors in Creighton’s season opener, however he was inexplicably held to only one field-goal try whereas taking part in 39 minutes on this one.

Credit score the place it is because of Nebraska head coach Fred Hoiberg and the entire Cornhuskers on the ground for neutralizing the Bluejays’ largest star, however one field-goal try?

Critically?

And it was a three-point try?

May you think about Zach Edey taking part in 39 minutes and taking one shot?

Creighton was completely content material to simply let it fly from distance, taking 42 three-point makes an attempt in opposition to simply 10 twos, however lacking 30 threes and committing 17 turnovers was fairly the deadly mixture.

Including literal harm to insult, veteran level guard Steven Ashworth suffered an ankle harm late within the recreation, with coach Greg McDermott saying afterwards: “We don’t know how lengthy Steven’s going to be out; I feel it’ll be some time.”

Ashworth is averaging 16.0 factors and 6.4 assists per recreation, and it might be a large blow if he’s out for any prolonged time frame.

For now, they drop a number of seed traces, however this one loss might flip right into a five-game dropping streak in a rush, with video games in opposition to San Diego State, Texas A&M, a TBD opponent within the ultimate spherical of the Gamers Period Competition and Kansas on faucet.

12 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 14. Wisconsin; 15. Purdue; 18. Ohio State; 20. Illinois; 23. Indiana; 31. UCLA; 32. Michigan State; 36. Oregon; 37. Maryland; 38. Michigan; 44. Nebraska; 45. Penn State

Additionally Thought-about: Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa

Largest Change: Nonetheless a dozen groups, however Ruh roh, Rutgers

The aforementioned highway win over Creighton was sufficient to vault Nebraska from “additionally thought of” into the projected subject, but it surely ended up being a fellow Large Ten crew that made some room for the Cornhuskers by struggling a nasty loss.

That crew was Rutgers, and the dangerous loss got here courtesy of Kennesaw State.

Taking part in exterior of Piscataway for the primary time this season, the freshmen-led Scarlet Knights dug themselves into a really deep gap on Sunday afternoon, trailing the Owls by as many as 21 factors early within the second half.

They did finally get up, went on a run and had a chance to win within the closing seconds. Nevertheless, their comeback fell simply brief, and so they’ve already been saddled with a loss throughout a gap stretch that was presupposed to lead to a 5-0 begin to the yr.

KenPom was already not a believer within the AP High 25 Scarlet Knights, having them rated at 68th even earlier than that recreation. And at this level, they’re going to have to play their method again into the at-large dialog.

Conversely, a spherical of applause for Wisconsin, which added victories over UCF and Pittsburgh in successful the Greenbrier Tip-Off. The Badgers already had an incredible residence win over Arizona on what’s now a stellar resume. Although they opened the season as our first team out of the sector, they’ve already rocketed as much as a projected No. 4 seed.

9 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 1. Auburn; 4. Tennessee; 7. Kentucky; 11. Alabama; 17. Texas A&M; 19. Texas; 25. Florida; 26. Mississippi State; 34. Arkansas

Additionally Thought-about: Vanderbilt, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, LSU, Missouri

Largest Change: Tennessee makes fairly the assertion

For the second consecutive yr, Rick Barnes pulled fairly the pair of up-transfers from the portal.

Final season, Dalton Knecht (Northern Colorado) was the Volunteers’ nationwide sensation, whereas Jordan Gainey (USC Upstate) performed a important function because the crew’s sixth man. This season, it is Chaz Lanier (North Florida) and Igor Milicic Jr. (Charlotte) within the early highlight at a mixed 31 factors per recreation.

That duo was large this previous week within the Baha Mar Hoops Championship, through which Tennessee blew out each Virginia and Baylor.

Lanier went for 51 factors, taking pictures a mixed 13-for-22 from three-point vary. He was additionally the star of its 22-point rout of Louisville, scoring 19 in that one.

Milicic had 14 factors and 6 offensive rebounds and was the MVP in opposition to UVA—the place he started his faculty profession in 2021, barely seeing the ground for the Cavaliers earlier than heading to Charlotte.

The 6’10” heart additionally tallied no less than three assists for the third and fourth consecutive video games—a enjoyable wrinkle this offense undoubtedly didn’t have final yr with Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka splitting duties on the 5.

Per typical, although, protection is the secret in Knoxville. After the 64-42 win over Virginia, Tennessee led Baylor 47-20 at halftime earlier than taking its foot off the gasoline a bit.

The Vols at the moment are proper up there with Auburn alongside the No. 1 seed line, with the Tigers ascending to No. 1 general with their victory over Iowa State in Maui.

9 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 3. Gonzaga; 16. Memphis; 33. Saint Mary’s; 40. Drake; 41. Dayton; 42. Utah State; 43. Nevada; 46. Boise State; 47. New Mexico

Additionally Thought-about: San Diego State, San Francisco, VCU

Largest Change: Charleston Basic giveth; Charleston Basic taketh away

With nary a ranked crew in its eight-team subject, the Charleston Basic was nowhere close to the marquee MTE that the Maui Invitational, Battle 4 Atlantis and Gamers Period Competition are/can be.

In lieu of title contenders, what it did have is a boatload of bubble groups who had to determine distribute these 12 wins and 12 losses.

For Drake, it was a beautiful weekend. The Bulldogs defeated every of Miami, Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt by double digits in turning into the shock champion.

They had been relentless on the offensive glass in all three video games, this regardless of not taking part in anybody taller than 6’8″. Additionally they went off for 11 steals and 5 blocks within the championship recreation in opposition to the Commodores. Bennett Stirtz and Mitch Mascari every performed all 120 minutes, scoring a mixed 108 factors for what’s out of the blue a viable bubble crew.

For VCU, it was a a lot completely different, agonizing story.

The Rams led by a slim margin for many of their opener in opposition to Seton Corridor, however they fell aside within the ultimate 10 minutes of regulation, finally dropping in time beyond regulation. Comparable story within the subsequent recreation in opposition to Nevada, blowing a 15-point second-half lead because the Wolf Pack gained on back-to-back three-point buckets within the ultimate minute.

Between the 2 video games, VCU was outscored 31-10 between the 10- and 5-minute marks of the second half, turning what was a golden alternative right into a nightmarish journey to South Carolina.

Beating Miami within the seventh-place recreation was definitely higher than dropping that one, too, however that is a tough pair of losses for a VCU crew that is not going to get many Quadrant 1 possibilities this season.

21 Groups within the Projected Area (by Total Seed): 48. UC Irvine; 49. Liberty; 50. Grand Canyon; 51. McNeese; 52. Yale; 53. Arkansas State; 54. Excessive Level; 55. Fort Wayne; 56. Furman; 57. Charleston; 58. UMass Lowell; 59. Kent State; 60. Northern Colorado; 61. Lipscomb; 62. South Dakota State; 63. Little Rock; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Saint Peter’s; 66. Alabama State; 67. Bucknell; 68. Central Connecticut

Additionally Thought-about: N/A

Largest Change: Princeton takes a pounding in Myrtle Seaside

Heading into the season, Princeton seemed like a improbable candidate for a(nother) Cinderella story.

With main scorers Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce returning alongside key 2023-24 contributors Blake Peters and Dalen Davis, it appeared possible {that a} crew that went 24-3 through the common season could be even higher this time round.

That definitively has not been the case to this point.

The Tigers barely gained their opener in opposition to Iona, wanted a late comeback to beat Northeastern and suffered a house loss to Loyola-Chicago a number of days previous to heading south for the Myrtle Seaside Invitational—the place they had been nonetheless thought of the favourite in a subject in any other case devoid of KenPom High 100 groups.

They instantly obtained pummeled by Wright State for a shocking 80-62 loss and proceeded to lose by three to Texas State the next day.

Princeton did rally to destroy Portland within the seventh-place recreation, but it surely was method too little, method too late.

What slim hope Princeton had of turning into the Ivy League’s first ever at-large crew has already gone out the window, and we now see Yale—even with 4 losses of its personal—projected to win the league.